Best of 2017: Books

In 2017, I read over 90 books. According to Goodreads stats, I only gave two of them five stars, 35 were given four stars and 44 were given three stars. I tend to not hand out five star review casually, although it ends up being hard to sort through the four star reviews when there were so many. Probably some of the fours should have been fives, but such is life.

An interesting stat: this year, 26 of the books I "read" were audio books. However, they tend to not get as high of ratings. I am not sure if this is because I probably do not focus as much when I am listening, or that many tend to be non-fiction, or that I just don't pick the "fun" books as audio books. Only one of the books on my list was an audio book. However, 6 of the 13 books I picked were non-fiction! Anyway, without further ado, here are my top thirteen reads from 2017 in no particular order.

You can see my lists here from 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, and 2011.

My First Summer in the Sierra by John Muir: I gave this book five stars and I liked it so much I even wrote an entire post about it! So I won't go on about it too much. In summary, it is a fresh new look at some of the places that I know and love, and it brings a new appreciation to the outdoors as well as to life itself.

When Breath Becomes Air by Paul Kalanithi: This was the second (and last) book I gave five stars to this year. It is a true story about a neurosurgical resident who in an interesting twist of fate ends up becoming a patient himself. I liked it so much that I read it in one sitting. It is well written and you can't help but love and relate to the writer and main character, and I was rooting for him throughout the entire book.

Animal, Vegetable, Miracle by Barbara Kingsolver: Kingsolver and her family, who live in northern Virginia, decide to grow or raise their own food for one year, only supplementing when absolutely necessary and then only from local sources. I was inspired by her description of growing asparagus and raising (and slaughtering) her own turkeys. This book made we want to run out and get some baby chicks! Its a fun story and an interesting look at what it takes to be self supported, food wise.

The Alice Network by Kate Quinn: This was a late addition; I actually just finished it. It is set during both WWI where you meet the first character, who is an English spy working in France. Then it takes you to modern day, which is just after WWII, where you meet second set of characters, whose lives end up tangling with the spy from WWI. All the characters are likeable and brave and interesting and the story line is fun and informative.

To the Bright Edge of The World by Eowyn Ivey: This book is written as a series of letters and journals between an Alaskan explorer and his wife in the 1800s. I love books written in this form as you really feel like you are in the person's head and you feel like you get to know them really well.

Born a Crime by Trevor Noah: A story of a boy growing up in South Africa during apartheid who has a black mother and a white father, which was a no-no in those days. He details some of the difficulties as well as how his family got through them. He does it in a humorous way, although the story is anything but funny. I didn't realize this but he is also the host of the Daily Show, and after reading this book, I watched some of his standup, which was really funny. I like that he is a multifaceted individual, not just a funny guy.

The Year of Yes by Shonda Rimes: This was the only audio book that made the cut this year. Shonda Rimes is the writer of Grey's Anatomy as well as several other shows and I was sure this book would be another richy rich talking about their problems and how they overcame them. However, Shonda is a painfully shy introvert who hates public speaking and would rather be behind a desk writing. When she decided to say "yes" to everything, she had to step out of her comfort zone. This book is a funny rendition of the uncomfortable things she ended up having to do (for instance, give a speech where she talks about "pooping her pants.")

Here are some others that made the cut: The Curious Charms of Arthur Pepper by Phaedra Patrick, All The Ugly and Wonderful Things by Bryn Greenwood, Small Great Things by Jodi Picoult, Love Warrior by Glennon Doyle Melton, Salt to the Sea by Ruta Sepetys and The Underground Railroad by Colson Whitehead.

What was your favorite book that you read in 2017? I am always looking for suggestions for my to-read list!

Winds keep changing as warming continues

November 2017 was 0.87 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean 1951-1980 November temperature, as above image shows. The last three Novembers — 2015, 2016, and 2017 — are the three warmest in the entire modern record. The warmest month of November happened in 2015 (+1.03°C) when there was a strong El Niño, while we're currently in a La Niña period.

On the image below, cyclonic winds on December 21, 2017, are visible near the Philippines and Vietnam. Near the Philippines, 3-hour precipitation accumulation was as high as 121.6 mm or 4.79 in (at green circle). As a BBC report describes, Tropical Storm Tembin made landfall in the southern Philippines on December 22, 2017, causing flash flooding and mudslides. More than 180 people are reported to have been killed, as the tropical storm swept through Mindanao island, with dozens more missing.


A week earlier, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens. The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.


The winds are fueled by high sea surface temperatures. Above image shows that, on December 21, 2017, sea surface temperatures were as high as 31.7°C or 89°F north of Australia. In line with rising temperatures caused by global warming, sea surface temperature anomalies are high across the oceans, as the image below illustrates.


As above image also shows, the sea surface was relatively cold at locations indicative for El Niño (depicted as four El Niño regions on the right).

The image below shows El Niño forecast plumes indicating that we're currently in a La Niña period, and that temperatures are on the rise.


In conclusion, just like the rise in temperatures is currently masked by a La Niña period, the return to a new El Niño period will further strengthen the rise.


This strengthening of winds is what can be expected in a warmer world. Above image shows a wavy Northern Polar Jet Stream combine with the Northern Subtropical Jet Stream to reach speeds as high as 401 km/h or 249 mph.

As the jet stream becomes more wavy and extends over the Arctic, more warm air and water gets carried into the Arctic, further speeding up warming, as also discussed at The Arctic is changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important.

The importance of Arctic warming was also discussed in the recent post Warming is accelerating. Changes to the Jet Stream can cause a lot more heat to be brought into the Arctic, through both the Bering Strait and the Fram Strait. This image below shows wind through the Bering Strait reaching speeds as high as 135 km/h or 84 mph.


The combination image below shows the Jet Stream extending over the Arctic Ocean and remaining in place for days, reaching speeds as high as 206 km/h or 128 mph. Such 'blocking' patterns can cause a lot of heat to be brought into the Arctic atmosphere, as well as into the water of the Arctic Ocean. The image in the left-hand panel indicates that temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean could be as high as 30°C or 54°F.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator decreases, the Jet Stream becomes more wavy, at times extending deep over the continents and bringing cold air to the south. This further increases the (already high) temperature difference between land and ocean, further speeding up cyclonic winds that move over the oceans toward the North Pole and that carry warm water and air toward the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows a forecast for January 1, 2018.


As sea ice keeps declining, ever less sunlight gets reflected back into space. The image below shows the decline in global sea ice area over the years.


The image below shows the average year-to-date Arctic sea ice volume (PIOMAS data).


This further confirms the updated trend analysis of the NASA temperature anomaly below.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Warming is accelerating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/11/warming-is-accelerating.html

• The Arctic is changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-arctic-is-changing-the-jet-stream-why-this-is-important.html

• NASA: November 2017 temperature news release
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20171218

• BBC: Philippines Tropical Storm Tembin kills 180 on Mindanao
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42464644

• NOAA: Four El Niño regions
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/nino_regions.shtml

• ECMWF: El Niño forecast plumes
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_nino_plumes

• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/04/10c-or-18f-warmer-by-2021.html

• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html

• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html

• High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on January 14, 2014
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/high-methane-levels-over-the-arctic-ocean-on-january-14-2014.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/03/methane-erupting-from-arctic-ocean-seafloor.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html



Fires threaten Santa Barbara


New mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the areas of Montecito, Summerland and some parts of Santa Barbara city, emergency officials said.


Above graph shows carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels from December 5 - 20, 2017, while the map below shows the location of the measurements (and forecasts).


The graph shows levels at one location and for one time of day (00:00 UTC for CO, respectively 01:30 UTC for CO₂). On December 11, 2017, at this location, but at 22:30 UTC, CO levels were 55639 ppb and CO₂ levels were 898 ppm, as illustrated the combination image below (left panel).

The right panel of the image below shows that CO₂ levels were as high as 922 ppm on December 7, 2017, at 01:30 UTC at a slightly different location. No CO₂ measurements were available for December 9 and 10, 2017, but given that levels of CO₂ and CO typically go up and down hand in hand, CO₂ may have peaked at well over 1000 ppm on December 9, 2017, possibly exceeding the 1229 ppm CO₂ measured in Montana on July 22, 2017.


Such fires look set to cause increasing amounts of emissions, speeding up warming of the atmosphere. These fires were fueled by extremely dry, hot and strong winds lasting for many days. Global warming is behind all these conditions. Not only does more heat translate into higher temperatures and stronger winds, the decreasing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is also increasing the intensity and duration of more extreme weather events such as storms and droughts. A record 129 million trees on 8.9 million acres have died in California due to drought and bark beetles infestation.


“For the first time in history, on December 7th, the Cal Fire elevated the fire threat to purple for San Diego County, warning that the weather conditions presented an extreme risk of fire for San Diego,” California Governor Jerry Brown wrote in a request for federal emergency assistance. “Fire officials predict extreme winds of up to 80 miles per hour, equal to the wind speed of a category one hurricane.”


The following is an extract from the California Scoping Plan 2017:
In California, as in the rest of the world, climate change is contributing to an escalation of serious problems, including raging wildfires, coastal erosion, disruption of water supply, threats to agriculture, spread of insect-borne diseases, and continuing health threats from air pollution. The drought that plagued California for years devastated the state’s agricultural and rural communities, leaving some of them with no drinking water at all. In 2015 alone, the drought cost agriculture in the Central Valley an estimated $2.7 billion, and more than 20,000 jobs. Last winter, the drought was broken by record-breaking rains, which led to flooding that tore through freeways, threatened rural communities, and isolated coastal areas. This year, California experienced the deadliest wildfires in its history. Climate change is making events like these more frequent, more catastrophic and more costly.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Wildfires 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/07/wildfires.html

• Extreme weather is upon us 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html

• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/04/10c-or-18f-warmer-by-2021.html

• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html

• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• Turning forest waste into biochar
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/turning-forest-waste-into-biochar.html


Ravendra jadeja six sixes in an over





Looking Back: November

November to me means the beginning of many things: the rainy season, the holidays, the  end of the year. It is always strange when it hits you that this year is almost over! Then you start to reflect on what has happened over the last year and it all seems to be a bit surreal at times! Here are the stats.

Running: In November I ran 172.7 miles and climbed 34,108 feet. Most of my mileage was due to a couple of longer runs on the weekends as well as one race, the Quad Dipsea (QD), which has become sort of an annual tradition. The QD is a two time out and back which has about 2,500 feet of climbing for each out and each back, for a total of almost 10,000 feet. This is always held the weekend after Thanksgiving and is an excellent way to burn off those turkey calories. I also biked 41.8 miles, which brings the yearly total to 268.8 which is an average of about 5.6 miles or one round trip commute per week.

Reading: I did not read as many books in November, most likely for a few reasons. One, my audio-book reading time goes down when I am not in the car or running alone and I did not really do much of either. For real books, I have been getting regular old hard backs from the library, which by the way never have as long of a hold period as the eBooks. However, other things in life are taking up precious reading time, so I have not been doing as much reading of the real books either. Here is the list in order of preference (audio-books in italics). I ended up reading 5 books.

The Last Days of Night****
Refugee****
Behold the Dreamers***
Let's Explore Diabetes with Owls***
The Impossible Fortress***



Travel: This month I did not stray too far from home, mostly because it was the holidays and I hosted so I stayed around for that, and then I had the Quad Dipsea one weekend so I stayed around for that. Otherwise, I did a quick weekend trip to Pomona to go to the NHRA drag race finals, which were a lot of fun even though my guy did not end up winning. Also, I did go to Marin county for runs with friends and to do the annual volunteering gig with my brother, where we sweep the course of the North Face 50 mile race. After doing it for four years in a row, we finally earned a new radio handle this year. We will heretofore be known as: Menudo!

Me and the broski, North Face 50 mile sweeps

 
Sunset over the Farallon Islands, Marin Headlands -- NF50 sweep


Sun setting on the Pomona Raceway. NHRA Finals.

Etc.: The garden is dead. I was thinking of planting some winter things, but am not sure I will get to it in time (or maybe I am already to late). So now it's just raking time, although I did buy a fun toy, a leaf blower, so I will probably have some fun with that in the coming days! Although I have never really used one before... Wish me luck!

San Francisco at dusk from the Vallejo steps.

What happened to you in November? How was your Thanksgiving?

Warming is accelerating


Warming is accelerating. For some time, it has been warmer than the 1.5°C guardrail that the Paris Agreement promised should not be crossed. This conclusion follows from above analysis of NASA land+ocean data 1880-October 2017, adjusted by 0.59°C to cater for the rise from preindustrial and with a trend added that also indicates that the global temperature look set to cross the 2°C guardrail soon, with 2021 falling within the margins of the trend line.
[ click on images to enlarge ]

The trend line shows a strong and ominous direction upward. Nonetheless, the situation could be even more dire than this trend indicates, since some warming elements are not fully incorporated in these data.

As an example, the NASA data look at the temperature at the surface of the oceans, which has increased strongly, as also illustrated by the image on the right.

Much warming has also occurred below the sea surface, while there has been some cooling of the sea surface. Moreover, ocean heat has also increased strongly over the years, as the image below illustrates, and looks set to increase further.

After all, what happens to oceans is important, as 93.4% of global warming currently goes into oceans.


The fact that much warming is taking place below the sea surface could make that it gets overlooked. If much of this warming were to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the next few years, then the temperature rise over the next few years could take an even sharper turn upward.

The threat that warming below the sea surface is overlooked is highlighted by the image below, which shows huge warming of Arctic waters at selected locations near Svalbard.


Above image focuses on temperatures at selected locations near Svalbard (see map below). In 1981-2011, temperatures were gradually falling by more than one degree Celsius over the period of measurement, i.e. from October 1 to November 23 (blue line), a fall that is in line with the change in seasons. Over this period in 2017, temperatures were 13.19°C or 23.77°F higher than in 1981-2011, while the temperature didn't seem to be falling (red line).


How could these waters get a stunning 13.19°C warmer than two decades ago?

Global warming did hit the North Atlantic hard, particularly along the track of the Gulf Stream all the way to the Arctic Ocean. This has translated into stronger winds along the track of the Gulf Stream, which are making that ever larger amounts of warm water are getting pushed from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean.

A temperature rise underneath the sea surface can be overlooked when merely monitoring the average surface temperature of the Arctic Ocean, especially when stronger winds have caused more evaporation, cooling down the water at the surface.

[ 100% relative humidity (left) as jet stream moves over Arctic Ocean (right) ]
Stronger winds, higher temperatures and the presence of more open water in the Arctic have all contributed to stronger rainfall in the Arctic. It looks like the rain did cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of the Arctic Ocean, acting as an insulator and preventing transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere. This also contributed to a colder atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, i.e. colder than it would otherwise have been. At the same time, since less heat could escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, this freshwater lid has resulted in warmer water, as is evident from the huge anomalies at the locations near Svalbard. The forecast below that Arctic will be 7.2°C or 12.96°F warmer than in 1979-2000 on December 3, 2017, illustrates just how warm the Arctic Ocean currently is.


This freshwater lid has also made it easier for sea ice to form at the surface, as ice will form in freshwater as warm as just below 0°C (or 32°F), compared to salty seawater that must cool down to -2°C (or 28.4°F) before freezing. The seawater underneath the sea ice is warm enough to melt the ice from below, but the layer of freshwater at the surface acts as an insulator.

There would have been less sea ice, had it not been for the rain resulting in this freshwater lid. Much of the freshwater lid did turn into sea ice in September 2017, as air temperatures came down below 0°Cs, and this sea ice similarly acted as an insulator, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Importantly, while much of the additional freshwater at the surface did turn into sea ice in 2017, this is only a temporary phenomenon, as no ice will form once the surface of the water will stay above 0°C, which looks imminent as temperatures keep rising.


[ Cyclone carrying particulates into the Arctic Ocean ]
Further sea ice loss means that less sunlight will get reflected back into space and will instead get absorbed by the Arctic, further accelerating warming in the arctic.

Additionally, more heat is radiated from sea ice into space than from open water (feedback #23).

Stronger cyclones can also bring more particulates into the Arctic Ocean, speeding up the demise of sea ice by darkening it when settling on ice, as illustrated by the image on the right.

In conclusion, while the formation of the freshwater lid at the surface of the Arctic Ocean has been holding back the collapse of the sea ice, the delay of the collapse can only be a temporary one as temperatures keep rising. The Arctic Ocean is warming at accelerating speed and collapse of the sea ice looks imminent.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above images confirm the loss of the thicker sea ice over the past few years, while zero Arctic sea ice is within the margins of the trend line of the image on the right.

Less sea ice will on the one hand make that more heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, but on the other hand the albedo loss and the additional water vapor will at the same time cause the Arctic Ocean to absorb more heat, with the likely net effect being greater warming of the Arctic Ocean.

Another point to consider is latent heat, as discussed in earlier posts. The danger is illustrated by the image below, showing that heat threatens to destabilize methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat threatens to reach sediments that have until now remained frozen. Melting of the ice in these sediments then threatens to unleash huge eruptions of seafloor methane that has until now been kept locked up by the permafrost.

The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page
Additionally, melting of permafrost on land can cause rapid decomposition of soils, resulting in releases of huge amounts of greenhouse gases, further accelerating warming in the Arctic, which in turn will result in more greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, water vapor) entering the Arctic atmosphere, more albedo changes, etc., in a vicious self-reinforcing cycle of runaway warming.


Levels of CO2, CH4 an N2O have been rising rapidly since 1750, as above image shows. Methane levels have risen 257% since 1750.

Did the rise in methane emissions slow down from 1999 to 2006?

One explanation for the apparent slowdown is that, as temperatures kept rising, water vapor in the atmosphere increased accordingly (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), resulting in more hydroxyl that broke down more methane in the atmosphere since 1990. So, while the rise in methane levels appeared to slow down, methane emissions were actually continuing to increase, but as an increasingly large part of methane was decomposed by hydroxyl, this rise in methane was overlooked. In 2007, Arctic sea ice reached a record low, triggering more methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. While hydroxyl kept increasing, seafloor methane kept increasing faster, making that methane emissions increasingly started to overwhelm hydroxyl, resulting in a stronger rise in overall methane levels. In 2013, I estimated methane emissions at 771 Tg/y, whereas the IPCC's estimate was 678 Tg/y. The post estimated methane from hydrates and permafrost at 13% of total methane emissions, whereas the IPCC's estimate was a mere 1% of total methane emissions. - Sam Carana, Dec. 2017.



[ click on images to enlarge ]
The presence of methane is felt particularly strongly over the Arctic Ocean. Above images show high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on December 2, 2017, when methane reached a peak level of 2771 ppb and on December 13 and 14, 2017, when peak levels as high as 2713 ppb were reached.

Methane levels have been rising strongly since 2000 and this rise looks set to continue, as illustrated by the image on the right.

There is also a danger that, as temperatures keep rising, the course of the ocean current near Svalbard could change, making that more heat will reach the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), thus further warming up sediments there, resulting in huge amounts of methane erupting from the seafloor.

Add up the impact of all warming elements and, as an earlier analysis shows, the rise in mean global temperatures from preindustrial could be more than 10°C in a matter of years, as illustrated by the images below.


A 2°C rise in temperature alone is devastating, especially when considering that temperature peaks in history look to have been less high than previously thought, as concluded by a recent study in ocean paleotemperature. Therefore, a 10°C rise may well result in the warmest temperatures experienced on Earth. Moreover, the speed at which this rise could occur leaves little or no time for plants and animals to adapt, in contrast to historical climate swings that typically took many years to eventuate.


The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/04/10c-or-18f-warmer-by-2021.html

• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html

• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html

• High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on January 14, 2014
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/high-methane-levels-over-the-arctic-ocean-on-january-14-2014.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/03/methane-erupting-from-arctic-ocean-seafloor.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html


Who's in charge?

Not a great morning for Theresa May...but then there probably hasn't been one of those since she called her ill fated snap election.

The Politico playbook sums up the Cabinet problem nicely, with a quick round-up of all the problems currently sitting round Mrs. May's cabinet table.

Then Ian Dunt in politics.co.uk suggests that there is no longer any such thing as a single, co-ordinated British foreign policy, given the apparent free hand being taken by Boris Johnson, Priti Patel and Liam Fox.

Meanwhile James Kirkup in the Spectator blog mercilessly dissects Priti Patel's "clarification" statement, while the Speccie itself concludes that "This may be one of the worst messes ever created by a Cabinet minister", in reference to Boris Johnson's appalling mismanagement of imprisoned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.  Over at the Times, Matthew Paris is no less sparing.....




There's a general trend on twitter comments about all of this, which goes broadly along the lines of "who the f*** is in charge?".

Boris Johnson - a charlatan and narcissistic fraud known to be such when appointed as Foreign Secretary by Mrs. May - has gone some way to demonstrating with his words the utter fallacy of those once proud comments in the British passport that "Her Britannic Majesty's Principal Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Requests and requires in the Name of Her Majesty all those whom it may concern to allow the bearer to pass freely without let or hindrance, and to afford the bearer such assistance and protection as may be necessary."

Turns out that Mr. Johnson's efforts effectively increase the let or hindrance afforded to unlucky British citizens.  [There is an irony here in that anti-EU activists years ago opposed the EU style passport on the grounds that it might mean the end of the unique protection offered by Britain to its citizens.  It has taken a vigorously anti-EU foreign secretary to illustrate the falsity of those sentiments].

Priti Patel has long been over-rated by admirers on the Brexit right, and her arrogant attempts to pursue her own foreign policy agenda in Israel, and with such incompetence, have illustrated the sharp limits of her political ability.

Liam Fox was admitted back into the Cabinet by Mrs. May despite having once resigned in disgrace (and yet another irony here, as he is the man going round the media studios today posing as the man of probity while he takes swipes at his Brexit ally Ms. Patel).  As Dunt's article shows, he too has no qualms abut pursuing his own independent line of policy, despite possessing a seeming slight grasp of trade realities.

Where to look for the origin of these problems?

In truth, and sadly, it is Mrs. May herself.  A competent enough Home Secretary, albeit one with numerous controversies to her tenure, she has proved over-whelmed by the office of prime minister.  Arriving there as much by luck than judgement, and over the flaws of her opponents more than the strengths of herself, she presides over a calamitous catastrophe of failed governance.

Her person judgement is poor - not just the afore-mentioned foreign policy team, but special advisers, the new Defence Secretary, David Davis, all bespeak an inability to select the good from the bad or mediocre.

But more significantly she herself has created the conditions for her current powerlessness. First, she pandered too much to the Brexiters in her party, perhaps to over-compensate for her own admittedly lukewarm Remain sympathises during the referendum, giving them a sense of entitlement about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.  Second, her election misadventure - from its very calling to her own poor stump performance - fatally undermined both her reputation and her authority.

A minority government does not, per se, need to be weak.  A tight grip from the centre, a sense of strategic vision shared by the whole government, and a willingness to exercise discipline against erring ministers. These are not superhuman requirements.  They are the basic requirement for clear governance, and they are all currently lacking in the present government.  The buck long ago stopeed at Number 10.

Sex scandals....and Brexit?



Image result for may and fallon

There’s never a good time for a feeding frenzy to break over a political system, but it is difficult to envisage many worse times for the British parliament and government than now. 

The two major parties – Conservatives and Labour – are currently trying to come to terms with their post-Brexit referendum statuses.  The Conservative minority government, meanwhile, has yet to exhibit much sureness of touch in its actual Brexit negotiations.  Add to that the natural instability that comes with a minority government, and the populist insurgency that seems to have taken over the Labour party, and you already have a febrile atmosphere in the Westminster parliament.

Into all of this has broken a new and not entirely unpredictable scandal.  It is to do with sexual harassment by MPs towards their employees and its tentacles are embracing both parties as well as having just claimed the scalp of a cabinet minister.

The origins are difficult to pinpoint.  Some suggest that the Harvey Weinstein scandal has opened the floodgates for similar revelations at Westminster.  Others point to the tawdry digital past of one of Labour’s newly elected MPs, Jared O’Mara, which last week forced the party to suspend him after a drip-feed of ever appalling revelations about his attitudes towards women in particular, all helpfully preserved on digital forums.

Wherever they originate though, British political sex scandals always seem to steer relentlessly towards the Conservative Party, and so it has proved again this time.   It didn’t take long for a spreadsheet of sin to be widely circulated amongst journalists, featuring exclusively Conservative MPs, ministers and former ministers.  Amongst the early figures to be named were junior minister Mark Garnier, for allegedly having his PA procure sex toys, and former Cabinet minister and leadership contender Stephen Crabbe, for sex-texting a 19 year old woman after interviewing her for a job. 

The spreadsheet, however, was reputed to contain some 40 named Tory MPs, and soon two senior members of the government found themselves having to respond to accusations of variable veracity.  First Secretary – and effective Deputy Prime Minister – Damian Green was accused by a former family friend of making suggestive comments to her.  He vigorously denied it and has at the time of writing instructed lawyers.  In truth, the accusations against Green – made by his accuser in a prominent article for the Times newspaper – seemed so thin as to almost disappear into the atmosphere, but it has nevertheless consumed his energies and diverted his own political energies for the past few days, as well as prompting an investigation by the Cabinet Secretary. 

The other senior Cabinet minister to be engulfed  was Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.  He placed his hand on the knee of a female acquaintance at a conference dinner 15 years ago.  The lady in question, journalist Julia Hartley-Brewer, a prominent talk radio host, soon went public to claim that the incident was fully resolved by Fallon with an apology at the time, and was of the utmost insignificance.   Bizarrely, despite this, it is Fallon who has now resigned.  In what must be the first example of Minority Report style “pre-crime” affecting politics, Fallon resigned because of possible future accusations and not over “knee-gate” as it became known.  To date, no further accusations  have been forthcoming. *
As to the 38 or so other Tory MPs on the list, whose names were redacted in published versions, several have now outed themselves on the grounds that the list contained so much fabricated material that this was the only way to discredit it effectively. 

Since this article was originally published, other accusations against Fallon have indeed been forthcoming 

This article was originally published in Vocal Europe

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BCCI FAREWELL TO ASHISH NEHRA


Looking Back: October

October was the month of tying up some loose ends. I got my hair cut, got my oil changed and went to the doctor. I met friends I had not seen in months for a drink. I only slept in my own bed one Saturday in October, and I did not get to bed that Saturday until midnight. It was a productive month, but sometimes when you are in the midst of it, it just feels hectic. 

Running: I ran 196 miles in October and climbed 36,400 feet. Hopefully this will help prepare me for the race I have on Thanksgiving weekend! I also biked about 50 miles, which brings my grand total to 227 out of my goal of 180. Even though I have surpassed my goal, I plan to continue to bike until it starts to rain a lot, which will probably be in December. I also did one yoga session, which is a lot lower than my goal of one per week. 

Maybe due to the heat, the sunsets have been fabulous. See San Francisco in the distance.

A short trip to my parents neck of the woods.

Reading: In October, I spent most of the month getting through two books, which took me a long time. They were both good, but they were just not quick reads for me. Otherwise, I did listen to a lot of audio books (in italics). The total number of books I read in October was seven, three of which were audio books. Here they are, starting with my favorite.

Strangers in Their Own Land****
Salt to the Sea****
Norse Mythology****
Little House on the Prairie**** (re-read)
Eligible***
Truth and Beauty***
The Magician's Assistant**

Travel: The first day of the month found me in South Lake Tahoe, getting in just a little more high altitude fun before the snow sets in again. This year I only went to the Sierras once in July and there was still so much snow it was hard to go on the trails. I had to return once more while the snow was sparse! However, I have a feeling this winter is also going to be a snowy one!


Midtown Manhattan

San Francisco, filled with smoke.

I also went up to my parents house, unfortunately for a memorial for my friend's father. In addition, another friend of mine from high school just passed away, so it was also a chance to pay our respects to her while I was there. It wasn't the most pleasant reason, but it was good to see some of my high school friends. Lastly, I had a work trip to New York, which I tacked an extra weekend onto so that I could visit with some friends there. It was great to be in the city in the fall; however, it was so warm that the colors had not really shown up yet, which I was really looking forward to!

Tahoe area, view from Mt. Tallac, - approximately 9,800 ft.

Etc: Other than the above, I finally ripped out most of my garden and am contemplating planting some winter items. Holiday planning has started, and the weather has been, in typical Bay Area fashion, in the high 80s most days. Go figure. I went wine tasting at the end of the month and am happy to say that the Napa area seems generally better than I had expected.

October is the month for canning!

What fun things did you do in October? Has Autumn struck yet in your neck of the woods? What is your favorite thing about Autumn?
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