The image below, a forecast for October 8, 2017, run on October 7, shows Hurricane Nate near New Orleans, with winds as fast as 83 mph or 134 km/h (at 850 mb) and up to 5.33 in or 135.4 mm (3-hour precipitation accumulation) of rain (at the green circle).

Early forecast also showed as much as 6.1 in or 154.9 mm of rain (3-hour precipitation accumulation) hitting the Mississippi coast.

The NOAA image below also shows the track over North America as forecast over the next few days.

Nate, the fourth major storm to strike the United States in less than two months, killed at least 30 people in Central America before entering the warm waters of the Gulf and bearing down on the U.S. South (Reuters report).

One of the biggest dangers is storm surge flooding, as illustrated by above image and the tweet below.

7-11 ft storm surge on the MS Gulf Coast and open water coast in SE LA from #Nate. I’m 6ft 6 in. This pole is 11 ft. Some perspective. pic.twitter.com/kisGyATz13

— Ken Graham (@wx4keg) October 7, 2017

As the world keeps warming, hurricanes are increasingly causing damage, as also discussed in a recent post.

The situation is dire a calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA National Hurricane Center
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

• The Arctic is Changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-arctic-is-changing-the-jet-stream-why-this-is-important.html

• Extreme weather is upon us
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html

For the first couple of weeks in September I was traveling, and then the remaining weekends were spent doing weekend trips, so I was barely home all month! Here are how the totals added up:

Running: A lot of my running miles this month were due to the fact that I hiked the Kungsleden, a long distance trail in Sweden, and I am counting those miles! I ended up running 336 miles, 225 of which were due to the Kungsleden. In addition, I completed 36.4 miles on the bike, bringing my total to 177 miles out of my goal of 180 miles. I am slacking a bit on the Yoga front, and only did one session, out of my goal of 4 times per month.

Teusajaure Lake, along the Kungsleden, Sweden

Reading: Once again, I did not read as much as I thought I would, as I was on vacation for the better part of the month. However, as it was in August, I did a lot of hiking and by the end of the day on these days, I was pretty tired and reading was not really a priority. However, I ended up reading eight books and most of them were pretty good! Here they are, in order of preference (audio books are in italics).

Born a Crime****
The Curious Charms of Arthur Pepper****
The Kitchen House****
A Man Called Ove****
The Nix****
Another Brooklyn***
Do Not Say We Have Nothing***
The Association of Small Bombs**

Travel: As stated above, for my yearly vacation this year I went to above the Arctic Circle in Sweden, where I hiked the Kungsleden trail. In addition, I spent a couple of days in Stockholm, running and exploring and hanging out. It was kind of funny to be in the land of people who look just like me, as most of my travels have been to places where I tend to stick out like a sore thumb!  I also went to Santa Cruz for a day at the beach with the folks, Napa for some wine tasting with friends, and to Tahoe for a weekend in the mountains! This was definitely a "last hurrah of summer" month and as you can see, I am trying to make the most of the good weather while it lasts!

Lake Aloha, South Lake Tahoe, CA

Lake Merritt, Oakland, CA

Hagaparken Lake, Stockholm, Sweden

Etc.: The garden went a bit wild while I was on vacation and the zuchinnis are so hard they will probably last in my compost for several years. In addition, I have about 4 zillion tomatoes, but have not been home long enough to can them yet! That is definitely something I need to get a move on with, as I definitely do not want them to go to waste! I also had a few figs (eaten!) and many cucumbers and CORN! Hurray for corn. It was so sweet and good and fresh!

Get in my belly!

What did you do this September? What is your favorite vacation activity? Do you have any good recent book recommendations?

By Sam Carana, with contributions by Jennifer Francis

Global warming is increasing the strength of hurricanes. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor and sea surface temperatures are rising. Both of these changes strengthen hurricanes. Steering winds may also be changing, causing unusual hurricane tracks such as Sandy's left turn into the mid-Atlantic seaboard and Harvey's stagnation over Houston. Is rapid Arctic warming playing a role?

Jennifer Francis has long been warning that global warming is increasing the likelihood of wavier jet stream patterns and more frequent blocking events, both of which have been observed. The Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the world. The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes is weakening the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and may be making the jet stream more wavy. In a 2012 study, Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus warned that this makes atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere more likely, aggravating extreme weather events related to stagnant weather conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

The danger was highlighted later that year, when a strong block associated with a deep jet stream trough helped steered Hurricane Sandy toward New York. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey hovered over Houston and dumped record-breaking rains (over 50 inches in some locations!), again highlighting this danger.

The jet stream separates cold air in the Arctic from warmer air farther south. A wavier jet stream transports more heat and moisture into the Arctic. This speeds up warming of the Arctic in a number of ways. In addition to warming caused by the extra heat, the added water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, trapping more heat in the atmosphere over the Arctic, while it also causes more clouds to form that also are effective heat trappers.

As the Arctic keeps warming, the jet stream is expected to become more distorted, bringing ever more heat and moisture into the Arctic. This constitutes a self-reinforcing feedback loop that keeps making the situation worse. In conclusion, it's high time for more comprehensive and effective action to reduce the underlying culprit: global warming.

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Jennifer Francis is Research Professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University, where she studies Arctic climate change and the link between the Arctic and global climates. Jennifer has received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA. She is a member of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, Association for Women in Science and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

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Links

• Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes, by Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus (2012)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/full

• Why Are Arctic Linkages to Extreme Weather Still Up in the Air? By Jennifer Francis (July 7, 2017)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0006.1

• Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections, by Jennifer Francis, Stephen Vavrus, Judah Cohen (May 16, 2017)
http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC474.html

• Jennifer Francis: A New Arctic Feedback - interview with Peter Sinclair
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_q3uWQR8Mw

• Jennifer Francis - Understanding the jet stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo