Warming is accelerating. For some time, it has been warmer than the 1.5°C guardrail that the Paris Agreement promised should not be crossed. This conclusion follows from above analysis of NASA land+ocean data 1880-October 2017, adjusted by 0.59°C to cater for the rise from preindustrial and with a trend added that also indicates that the global temperature look set to cross the 2°C guardrail soon, with 2021 falling within the margins of the trend line.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The trend line shows a strong and ominous direction upward. Nonetheless, the situation could be even more dire than this trend indicates, since some warming elements are not fully incorporated in these data.

As an example, the NASA data look at the temperature at the surface of the oceans, which has increased strongly, as also illustrated by the image on the right.

Much warming has also occurred below the sea surface, while there has been some cooling of the sea surface. Moreover, ocean heat has also increased strongly over the years, as the image below illustrates, and looks set to increase further.

After all, what happens to oceans is important, as 93.4% of global warming currently goes into oceans.

The fact that much warming is taking place below the sea surface could make that it gets overlooked. If much of this warming were to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the next few years, then the temperature rise over the next few years could take an even sharper turn upward.

The threat that warming below the sea surface is overlooked is highlighted by the image below, which shows huge warming of Arctic waters at selected locations near Svalbard.

Above image focuses on temperatures at selected locations near Svalbard (see map below). In 1981-2011, temperatures were gradually falling by more than one degree Celsius over the period of measurement, i.e. from October 1 to November 23 (blue line), a fall that is in line with the change in seasons. Over this period in 2017, temperatures were 13.19°C or 23.77°F higher than in 1981-2011, while the temperature didn't seem to be falling (red line).

How could these waters get a stunning 13.19°C warmer than two decades ago?

Global warming did hit the North Atlantic hard, particularly along the track of the Gulf Stream all the way to the Arctic Ocean. This has translated into stronger winds along the track of the Gulf Stream, which are making that ever larger amounts of warm water are getting pushed from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean.

A temperature rise underneath the sea surface can be overlooked when merely monitoring the average surface temperature of the Arctic Ocean, especially when stronger winds have caused more evaporation, cooling down the water at the surface.

[ 100% relative humidity (left) as jet stream moves over Arctic Ocean (right) ]

Stronger winds, higher temperatures and the presence of more open water in the Arctic have all contributed to stronger rainfall in the Arctic. It looks like the rain did cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of the Arctic Ocean, acting as an insulator and preventing transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere. This also contributed to a colder atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, i.e. colder than it would otherwise have been. At the same time, since less heat could escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, this freshwater lid has resulted in warmer water, as is evident from the huge anomalies at the locations near Svalbard. The forecast below that Arctic will be 7.2°C or 12.96°F warmer than in 1979-2000 on December 3, 2017, illustrates just how warm the Arctic Ocean currently is.

This freshwater lid has also made it easier for sea ice to form at the surface, as ice will form in freshwater as warm as just below 0°C (or 32°F), compared to salty seawater that must cool down to -2°C (or 28.4°F) before freezing. The seawater underneath the sea ice is warm enough to melt the ice from below, but the layer of freshwater at the surface acts as an insulator.

There would have been less sea ice, had it not been for the rain resulting in this freshwater lid. Much of the freshwater lid did turn into sea ice in September 2017, as air temperatures came down below 0°Cs, and this sea ice similarly acted as an insulator, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Importantly, while much of the additional freshwater at the surface did turn into sea ice in 2017, this is only a temporary phenomenon, as no ice will form once the surface of the water will stay above 0°C, which looks imminent as temperatures keep rising.

[ Cyclone carrying particulates into the Arctic Ocean ]

Further sea ice loss means that less sunlight will get reflected back into space and will instead get absorbed by the Arctic, further accelerating warming in the arctic.

Additionally, more heat is radiated from sea ice into space than from open water (feedback #23).

Stronger cyclones can also bring more particulates into the Arctic Ocean, speeding up the demise of sea ice by darkening it when settling on ice, as illustrated by the image on the right.

In conclusion, while the formation of the freshwater lid at the surface of the Arctic Ocean has been holding back the collapse of the sea ice, the delay of the collapse can only be a temporary one as temperatures keep rising. The Arctic Ocean is warming at accelerating speed and collapse of the sea ice looks imminent.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above images confirm the loss of the thicker sea ice over the past few years, while zero Arctic sea ice is within the margins of the trend line of the image on the right.

Less sea ice will on the one hand make that more heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, but on the other hand the albedo loss and the additional water vapor will at the same time cause the Arctic Ocean to absorb more heat, with the likely net effect being greater warming of the Arctic Ocean.

Another point to consider is latent heat, as discussed in earlier posts. The danger is illustrated by the image below, showing that heat threatens to destabilize methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat threatens to reach sediments that have until now remained frozen. Melting of the ice in these sediments then threatens to unleash huge eruptions of seafloor methane that has until now been kept locked up by the permafrost.

The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

Additionally, melting of permafrost on land can cause rapid decomposition of soils, resulting in releases of huge amounts of greenhouse gases, further accelerating warming in the Arctic, which in turn will result in more greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, water vapor) entering the Arctic atmosphere, more albedo changes, etc., in a vicious self-reinforcing cycle of runaway warming.

Levels of CO2, CH4 an N2O have been rising rapidly since 1750, as above image shows. Methane levels have risen 257% since 1750.

Did the rise in methane emissions slow down from 1999 to 2006?

One explanation for the apparent slowdown is that, as temperatures kept rising, water vapor in the atmosphere increased accordingly (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), resulting in more hydroxyl that broke down more methane in the atmosphere since 1990. So, while the rise in methane levels appeared to slow down, methane emissions were actually continuing to increase, but as an increasingly large part of methane was decomposed by hydroxyl, this rise in methane was overlooked. In 2007, Arctic sea ice reached a record low, triggering more methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. While hydroxyl kept increasing, seafloor methane kept increasing faster, making that methane emissions increasingly started to overwhelm hydroxyl, resulting in a stronger rise in overall methane levels. In 2013, I estimated methane emissions at 771 Tg/y, whereas the IPCC's estimate was 678 Tg/y. The post estimated methane from hydrates and permafrost at 13% of total methane emissions, whereas the IPCC's estimate was a mere 1% of total methane emissions. - Sam Carana, Dec. 2017.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The presence of methane is felt particularly strongly over the Arctic Ocean. Above images show high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on December 2, 2017, when methane reached a peak level of 2771 ppb and on December 13 and 14, 2017, when peak levels as high as 2713 ppb were reached.

Methane levels have been rising strongly since 2000 and this rise looks set to continue, as illustrated by the image on the right.

There is also a danger that, as temperatures keep rising, the course of the ocean current near Svalbard could change, making that more heat will reach the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), thus further warming up sediments there, resulting in huge amounts of methane erupting from the seafloor.

Add up the impact of all warming elements and, as an earlier analysis shows, the rise in mean global temperatures from preindustrial could be more than 10°C in a matter of years, as illustrated by the images below.

A 2°C rise in temperature alone is devastating, especially when considering that temperature peaks in history look to have been less high than previously thought, as concluded by a recent study in ocean paleotemperature. Therefore, a 10°C rise may well result in the warmest temperatures experienced on Earth. Moreover, the speed at which this rise could occur leaves little or no time for plants and animals to adapt, in contrast to historical climate swings that typically took many years to eventuate.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/04/10c-or-18f-warmer-by-2021.html

• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html

• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html

• High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on January 14, 2014
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/high-methane-levels-over-the-arctic-ocean-on-january-14-2014.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/03/methane-erupting-from-arctic-ocean-seafloor.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

Not a great morning for Theresa May...but then there probably hasn't been one of those since she called her ill fated snap election.

The Politico playbook sums up the Cabinet problem nicely, with a quick round-up of all the problems currently sitting round Mrs. May's cabinet table.

Then Ian Dunt in politics.co.uk suggests that there is no longer any such thing as a single, co-ordinated British foreign policy, given the apparent free hand being taken by Boris Johnson, Priti Patel and Liam Fox.

Meanwhile James Kirkup in the Spectator blog mercilessly dissects Priti Patel's "clarification" statement, while the Speccie itself concludes that "This may be one of the worst messes ever created by a Cabinet minister", in reference to Boris Johnson's appalling mismanagement of imprisoned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.  Over at the Times, Matthew Paris is no less sparing.....




There's a general trend on twitter comments about all of this, which goes broadly along the lines of "who the f*** is in charge?".

Boris Johnson - a charlatan and narcissistic fraud known to be such when appointed as Foreign Secretary by Mrs. May - has gone some way to demonstrating with his words the utter fallacy of those once proud comments in the British passport that "Her Britannic Majesty's Principal Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Requests and requires in the Name of Her Majesty all those whom it may concern to allow the bearer to pass freely without let or hindrance, and to afford the bearer such assistance and protection as may be necessary."

Turns out that Mr. Johnson's efforts effectively increase the let or hindrance afforded to unlucky British citizens.  [There is an irony here in that anti-EU activists years ago opposed the EU style passport on the grounds that it might mean the end of the unique protection offered by Britain to its citizens.  It has taken a vigorously anti-EU foreign secretary to illustrate the falsity of those sentiments].

Priti Patel has long been over-rated by admirers on the Brexit right, and her arrogant attempts to pursue her own foreign policy agenda in Israel, and with such incompetence, have illustrated the sharp limits of her political ability.

Liam Fox was admitted back into the Cabinet by Mrs. May despite having once resigned in disgrace (and yet another irony here, as he is the man going round the media studios today posing as the man of probity while he takes swipes at his Brexit ally Ms. Patel).  As Dunt's article shows, he too has no qualms abut pursuing his own independent line of policy, despite possessing a seeming slight grasp of trade realities.

Where to look for the origin of these problems?

In truth, and sadly, it is Mrs. May herself.  A competent enough Home Secretary, albeit one with numerous controversies to her tenure, she has proved over-whelmed by the office of prime minister.  Arriving there as much by luck than judgement, and over the flaws of her opponents more than the strengths of herself, she presides over a calamitous catastrophe of failed governance.

Her person judgement is poor - not just the afore-mentioned foreign policy team, but special advisers, the new Defence Secretary, David Davis, all bespeak an inability to select the good from the bad or mediocre.

But more significantly she herself has created the conditions for her current powerlessness. First, she pandered too much to the Brexiters in her party, perhaps to over-compensate for her own admittedly lukewarm Remain sympathises during the referendum, giving them a sense of entitlement about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.  Second, her election misadventure - from its very calling to her own poor stump performance - fatally undermined both her reputation and her authority.

A minority government does not, per se, need to be weak.  A tight grip from the centre, a sense of strategic vision shared by the whole government, and a willingness to exercise discipline against erring ministers. These are not superhuman requirements.  They are the basic requirement for clear governance, and they are all currently lacking in the present government.  The buck long ago stopeed at Number 10.

There’s never a good time for a feeding frenzy to break over a political system, but it is difficult to envisage many worse times for the British parliament and government than now. 

The two major parties – Conservatives and Labour – are currently trying to come to terms with their post-Brexit referendum statuses.  The Conservative minority government, meanwhile, has yet to exhibit much sureness of touch in its actual Brexit negotiations.  Add to that the natural instability that comes with a minority government, and the populist insurgency that seems to have taken over the Labour party, and you already have a febrile atmosphere in the Westminster parliament.

Into all of this has broken a new and not entirely unpredictable scandal.  It is to do with sexual harassment by MPs towards their employees and its tentacles are embracing both parties as well as having just claimed the scalp of a cabinet minister.

The origins are difficult to pinpoint.  Some suggest that the Harvey Weinstein scandal has opened the floodgates for similar revelations at Westminster.  Others point to the tawdry digital past of one of Labour’s newly elected MPs, Jared O’Mara, which last week forced the party to suspend him after a drip-feed of ever appalling revelations about his attitudes towards women in particular, all helpfully preserved on digital forums.

Wherever they originate though, British political sex scandals always seem to steer relentlessly towards the Conservative Party, and so it has proved again this time.   It didn’t take long for a spreadsheet of sin to be widely circulated amongst journalists, featuring exclusively Conservative MPs, ministers and former ministers.  Amongst the early figures to be named were junior minister Mark Garnier, for allegedly having his PA procure sex toys, and former Cabinet minister and leadership contender Stephen Crabbe, for sex-texting a 19 year old woman after interviewing her for a job. 

The spreadsheet, however, was reputed to contain some 40 named Tory MPs, and soon two senior members of the government found themselves having to respond to accusations of variable veracity.  First Secretary – and effective Deputy Prime Minister – Damian Green was accused by a former family friend of making suggestive comments to her.  He vigorously denied it and has at the time of writing instructed lawyers.  In truth, the accusations against Green – made by his accuser in a prominent article for the Times newspaper – seemed so thin as to almost disappear into the atmosphere, but it has nevertheless consumed his energies and diverted his own political energies for the past few days, as well as prompting an investigation by the Cabinet Secretary. 

The other senior Cabinet minister to be engulfed  was Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.  He placed his hand on the knee of a female acquaintance at a conference dinner 15 years ago.  The lady in question, journalist Julia Hartley-Brewer, a prominent talk radio host, soon went public to claim that the incident was fully resolved by Fallon with an apology at the time, and was of the utmost insignificance.   Bizarrely, despite this, it is Fallon who has now resigned.  In what must be the first example of Minority Report style “pre-crime” affecting politics, Fallon resigned because of possible future accusations and not over “knee-gate” as it became known.  To date, no further accusations  have been forthcoming. *

As to the 38 or so other Tory MPs on the list, whose names were redacted in published versions, several have now outed themselves on the grounds that the list contained so much fabricated material that this was the only way to discredit it effectively. 

* Since this article was originally published, other accusations against Fallon have indeed been forthcoming 

This article was originally published in Vocal Europe

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— Cricket Videos (@CricketKaVideos) November 4, 2017

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— Cricket Videos (@CricketKaVideos) November 4, 2017

Rider or pillion, both lives matter equally. Please, please make wearing helmets a habit. Just my opillion :) #HelmetDaalo2.0 #RoadSafety pic.twitter.com/0Lamnsj3Fq

— sachin tendulkar (@sachin_rt) November 3, 2017

Farewell to the man of the moment - Ashish Nehra #ThankYouAshishNehra pic.twitter.com/onuPCxU4r6

— BCCI (@BCCI) November 1, 2017

October was the month of tying up some loose ends. I got my hair cut, got my oil changed and went to the doctor. I met friends I had not seen in months for a drink. I only slept in my own bed one Saturday in October, and I did not get to bed that Saturday until midnight. It was a productive month, but sometimes when you are in the midst of it, it just feels hectic. 

Running: I ran 196 miles in October and climbed 36,400 feet. Hopefully this will help prepare me for the race I have on Thanksgiving weekend! I also biked about 50 miles, which brings my grand total to 227 out of my goal of 180. Even though I have surpassed my goal, I plan to continue to bike until it starts to rain a lot, which will probably be in December. I also did one yoga session, which is a lot lower than my goal of one per week. 

Maybe due to the heat, the sunsets have been fabulous. See San Francisco in the distance.

A short trip to my parents neck of the woods.

Reading: In October, I spent most of the month getting through two books, which took me a long time. They were both good, but they were just not quick reads for me. Otherwise, I did listen to a lot of audio books (in italics). The total number of books I read in October was seven, three of which were audio books. Here they are, starting with my favorite.

Strangers in Their Own Land****
Salt to the Sea****
Norse Mythology****
Little House on the Prairie**** (re-read)
Eligible***
Truth and Beauty***
The Magician's Assistant**

Travel: The first day of the month found me in South Lake Tahoe, getting in just a little more high altitude fun before the snow sets in again. This year I only went to the Sierras once in July and there was still so much snow it was hard to go on the trails. I had to return once more while the snow was sparse! However, I have a feeling this winter is also going to be a snowy one!

Midtown Manhattan

San Francisco, filled with smoke.

I also went up to my parents house, unfortunately for a memorial for my friend's father. In addition, another friend of mine from high school just passed away, so it was also a chance to pay our respects to her while I was there. It wasn't the most pleasant reason, but it was good to see some of my high school friends. Lastly, I had a work trip to New York, which I tacked an extra weekend onto so that I could visit with some friends there. It was great to be in the city in the fall; however, it was so warm that the colors had not really shown up yet, which I was really looking forward to!

Tahoe area, view from Mt. Tallac, - approximately 9,800 ft.

Etc: Other than the above, I finally ripped out most of my garden and am contemplating planting some winter items. Holiday planning has started, and the weather has been, in typical Bay Area fashion, in the high 80s most days. Go figure. I went wine tasting at the end of the month and am happy to say that the Napa area seems generally better than I had expected.

October is the month for canning!

What fun things did you do in October? Has Autumn struck yet in your neck of the woods? What is your favorite thing about Autumn?