And before you know it, poof, a month has already gone by! And then, poof, another! I have been really slacking on posting, but I have been reading your updates when I get a chance; I am just not really commenting as much anymore. Here, in short form, is a summary of my past few months.

December quickie: In December I ran 164 miles to bring my 2017 total to 2,505 for the year, which got me to my 2,400 mile goal. I climbed 29,800 ft, which also bagged me my 450k climbing goal for the year.  I read 6 books, for a total of 94 books. My favorite for December was The Alice Network, which I talked about in my Best of 2017 book post. I traveled home for the holidays.

Running: In January I ran 204 miles and climbed 28,900 ft. In February I ran 210 miles and climbed 23,300 ft. This year I have lowered some of my goals a bit, as I have some more important things on the agenda, but I would still like to break the 2,000 mile / 400,000 ft climbing goal. I seem to be on track so far.

Sunset Speed Work at Lake Merritt

Point Reyes Sunrise Run

Lately a typical running week is three or four runs: a short trail run during the week, one session of road/speed work during the week, a "long" trail on the weekend and sometimes a once a week catch up road run with a friend who is training for her first full running half marathon (she has done a half before but walked a lot of it). This seems to be a good variation while still putting in enough miles but spending less time than if I did all trail runs. I still struggle to find a balance at times (and sleep is often the loser), but it'll get there!

Reading: In January, I started 6 books and put three of them down right away, for a net total of three books. I have started to be better about ditching books that don't catch my interest before I get to the halfway point. This time, I even ditched a couple in the first couple of chapters! In February, I had a better month, and read four books (no rejects!) which were all pretty good. My goal this year is one book per week, or 52 books. So far, I am a little bit behind, but I will likely catch up in August and September, when I generally have most of my vacation time.

Some of my favorites from the past two months were:

Beartown by Fredrik Backman (****)
Pachinko by Min Jin Lee (****)
A Gentleman in Moscow by Amor Towles (****)
We Were the Lucky Ones by Georgia Hunter (*****)

Travel: You know that buzzer sound when you get an answer wrong on Family Feud? That pretty much sums up my travel for the past two months. A big fat BEEEEEEP. Nothing. Okay, so not totally nothing, I guess, but mostly local. I went to Auburn for a nice hike with the family and I spent a fun game night at a friend's house, but I have slept in my own bed every single night so far this year. After spending virtually no Saturdays in my own bed from August - November of last year, it feels a little strange. Plus I have to wash the sheets more often now.

Auburn Hike with the Fam

Well, that's the last three months in a nutshell! Before I go, I want to give a quick shout out to my friend Lisa, who besides my Mom (hi Mom!) is one of the few people who reads this. After what I would say was a difficult pregnancy, she recently had a baby boy! Congrats Lisa!

What have you been up to for the past few months? What book should I add to my list? In what month do you travel the most?

For a short month, February was chock full of stuff! Even during the short week after Presidents' Day weekend, it seemed like we crammed seven days worth of work into four days! In addition, I spent much weekend time working in the yard/backyard and around the house, so a lot got done on all counts!

Running: I logged 183 miles in February, and climbed about 35,000 feet. My favorite run was a 42k run with a friend on his 42nd birthday. In addition, I went home to visit my parents and got to log some snowy miles in one of my favorite places!

42nd B-day 42k

Reading: In February, I read 8 books. Actually, I never finished two of them, so you may call it 6 and two halves. My favorite was When Breath Becomes Air, a story of a neurosurgical resident who gets lung cancer. It is well written and moving. I read it in one sitting. I also enjoyed, but was quite disturbed by All The Ugly and Wonderful Things, about a 20-something biker who takes an 8 year old girl with drug addict parents under his wing. It's both sweet and cringe-worthy at the same time.  Lastly, Adnan's Story, a more complete explanation of the story behind the podcast Serial, was very interesting. Books I own are in bold.

Family Reunion (* couldn't finish)
Adnan's Story (****)
Suite Francaise (***)
In the Country We Love: My Family Divided (***)
When Breath Becomes Air (*****)
Lean In (***)
The Big Green Tent (** couldn't finish)
All The Ugly and Wonderful Things (****) 

Travel: I did not travel that much in February. Aside from a trip north to see my parents, I spent a lot of time in my own backyard. Literally. I will post more photos later, but essentially I have been spending a lot of time moving rocks from one place to another! It's been great cross training!  I would say all in all I probably worked in the yard for about 4 hours a day, at least 6 days in February. Check out these guns!

Views on my Rock Creek run

What was your favorite workout, book or destination in February?

The February 2016 land and ocean temperature anomaly was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the average temperature in the period from 1951 to 1980, as above image shows (Robinson projection).

On land, it was 1.68°C (3.02°F) warmer in February 2016, compared to 1951-1980, as the image below shows (polar projection).

The image below combines the above two figures in two graphs, showing temperature anomalies over the past two decades.

Below are the full graphs for both the land-ocean data and the land-only data. Anomalies on land during the period 1890-1910 were 0.61°C lower compared to the period from 1951 to 1980, which is used as a reference to calculate anomalies. The blue line shows land-ocean data, while the red line shows data from stations on land only.

At the Paris Agreement, nations committed to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

To see how much temperatures have risen compared to pre-industrial levels, a comparison with the period 1951-1980 does not give the full picture. The image below compares the February 2016 temperatures with the period from 1890 to 1910, again for land only.

Since temperatures had already risen by ~0.3°C (0.54°F) before 1900, the total temperature rise on land in February 2016 thus is 2.6°C (4.68°F) compared to the start of the industrial revolution.

There are a number of elements that determine how much the total temperature rise on land will be, say, a decade from now:

Rise 1900-2016: In February 2016, it was 2.3°C (4.14°F) warmer on land than it was in 1890-1910.

Rise before 1900: Before 1900, temperature had already risen by ~0.3°C (0.54°F), as Dr. Michael Mann points out (see earlier post).

Rise 2016-2026: If levels of carbon dioxide and further greenhouse gases do keep rising, there will additional warming over the next ten years. Even with dramatic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, temperatures can keep rising, as maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission, so the full wrath of the carbon dioxide emissions over the past ten years is still to come. Moreover, mean global carbon dioxide grew by 3.09 ppm in 2015, more than in any year since the record started in 1959, prompting an earlier post to add a polynomial trendline that points at a growth of 5 ppm by 2026 (a decade from now). This growth took place while global energy-related CO2 emissions have hardly grown over the past few years, indicating that land and oceans cannot be regarded as a sink, but should be regarded as source of carbon dioxide. On land, carbon dioxide may be released due to land changes, changes in agriculture, deforestation and extreme weather causing droughts, wildfires, desertification, erosion and other forms of soil degradation. Importantly, this points at the danger that such emissions will continue to grow as temperatures keep rising. New studies on permafrost melt (such as this one and this one) show that emissions and temperatures can rise much faster in the Arctic than previously thought. Furthermore, a 2007 study found a 25% soil moisture reduction to result in 2°C warming. Altogether, the rise over the next decade due to such emissions may be 0.2°C or 0.36°F (low) to 0.5°C or 0.9°F (high).

Removal of aerosols: With the necessary dramatic cuts in emissions, there will also be a dramatic fall in aerosols that currently mask the full warming of greenhouse gases. From 1850 to 2010, anthropogenic aerosols brought about a decrease of ∼2.53 K, says a recent paper. In addition, more aerosols are likely to be emitted now than in 2010, so the current masking effect of aerosols may be even higher. Stopping aerosol release may raise temperatures by 0.4°C or 0.72°F (low) to 2.5°C or 4.5°F (high) over the next decade, and when stopped abruptly this may happen in a matter of weeks.

Albedo change: Warming due to Arctic snow and ice loss may well exceed 2 W per square meter, i.e. it could more than double the net warming now caused by all emissions by people of the world, as Professor Peter Wadhams calculated in 2012. The temperature rise over the next decade due to albedo changes as a result of permafrost and sea ice decline may be 0.2°C or 0.36°F (low) to 1.6°C or 2.9°F (high).

Methane eruptions from the seafloor: ". . . we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time," Dr. Natalia Shakhova et al. wrote in a paper presented at EGU General Assembly 2008. Authors found that such a release would cause 1.3°C warming by 2100. Such warming from an extra 50 Gt of methane seems conservative when considering that there now is only some 5 Gt of methane in the atmosphere, and over a period of ten years this 5 Gt is already responsible for more warming than all the carbon dioxide emitted by people since the start of the industrial revolution. The temperature rise could be higher, especially in case of large abrupt release, but in case of small and gradual releases much of the methane may be broken down over the years. The temperature rise due to seafloor methane over the next decade may be 0.2°C or 0.36°F (low) to 1.1°C or 2°F (high).

Water vapor feedback: "Water vapour feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapour. Furthermore, water vapour feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapour feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapour concentration were held fixed", according to the IPCC. In line with the above elements, this may result in a temperature rise over the next decade of 0.2°C or 0.36°F (low) to 2.1°C or 3.8°F (high).

The image below puts all these elements together in two scenarios, one with a relatively low temperature rise of 3.9°C (7.02°F) and another one with a relatively high temperature rise of 10.4°C (18.72°F).

Note that the above scenarios assume that no geoengineering will take place.

The 2.3°C warming used in above image isn't the highest figure offered by the NASA site. An even higher figure of 2.51°C warming can be obtained by selecting a 250 km smoothing radius for the on land data.

When adding the 0.3°C that temperatures rose before 1900, the rise from the start of the industrial revolution is 2.81°C (5.06°F), as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image also shows that this is the average rise. At specific locations, it is as much as 16.6°C (30°F) warmer than at the start of the industrial revolution.

Furthermore, temperatures are higher on the Northern Hemisphere than on the Southern Hemisphere. This is illustrated by the image below showing NASA temperature anomalies for January 2016 (black) and February 2016 (red) on land on the Northern Hemisphere. The data show that it was 2.36°C (4.25°F) warmer in February 2016 compared to 1951-1980.

How much of the rise can be attributed to El Niño? The added trendlines constitute one way to handle variability such as caused by El Niño and La Niña events and they can also indicate how much warming could be expected to eventuate over the years to come.

The February trendline also indicates that the temperature was 0.5°C lower in 1900 than in 1951-1980, so the total rise from 1900 to February 2016 is 2.86°C (5.15°F). Together with a 0.3°C rise before 1900, this adds up to a rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere of 3.16°C (5.69°F) from pre-industrial levels to February 2016. Most people on Earth live on land on the Northern Hemisphere. In other words, most people are already exposed to a temperature rise that is well above any guardrails that nations at the Paris Agreement pledged would not be crossed.

Temperatures may actually rise even more rapidly than these trendlines indicate. As above image illustrates, the largest temperature rises are taking place in the Arctic, resulting in a rapid decline of snow and ice cover and increasing danger that large methane eruptions from the seafloor will take place, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. This could then further lead to more water vapor, while the resulting temperature rises also threaten to cause more droughts, heatwaves and wildfires that will cause further emissions, as well as shortages of food and fresh water supply in many areas.

Adding the various elements as discussed above indicates that most people may well be hit by a temperature rise of 4.46°C or 8.03°F in a low rise scenario and of 10.96°C or 19.73°F in a high rise scenario, and that would be in one decade from February 2016. Since it is now already March 2016, that is less than ten years from now.

The image below shows highest mean methane readings on one day, i.e. March 10, over four years, i.e. 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, at selected altitudes in mb (millibar). The comparison confirms that the increase of methane in the atmosphere is more profound at higher altitudes, as discussed in earlier posts. This could indicate that methane from the Arctic Ocean is hardly detected at lower altitudes, as it rises in plumes (i.e. very concentrated), while it will then spread and accumulate at higher altitudes and at lower latitudes.

The conversion table below shows the altitude equivalents in mb, feet and m.

57016 feet	44690 feet	36850 feet	30570 feet	25544 feet	19820 feet	14385 feet	8368 feet	1916 feet
17378 m	13621 m	11232 m	9318 m	7786 m	6041 m	4384 m	2551 m	584 m
74 mb	147 mb	218 mb	293 mb	367 mb	469 mb	586 mb	742 mb	945 mb

Meanwhile Arctic sea ice area remains at a record low for the time of the year, as illustrated by the image below.

Next to rising surface temperatures in the Arctic, ocean temperature rises on the Northern Hemisphere also contribute strongly to both Arctic sea ice decline and methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, so it's important to get an idea how much the Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature can be expected to rise over the next decade. The NOAA image below shows a linear trend over the past three decades that is rising by 0.19°C per decade.

The image below, using the same data, shows a polynomial trend pointing at a 1.5°C rise in ocean temperature on the Northern Hemisphere over the next decade.

Below is another version of above graph.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

This month felt shorter than normal! Ha. That was a joke... Really though, February did go by fast, but that is what happens when you are working on the weekdays and are active on the weekends!

Sunrise over lake Tahoe

Running: I felt like I did a lot of running in February, but I ended up with 84 miles of trail running, 50.5 miles of road running (including Jed Smith) and 4 miles on the treadmill for a total of 138.5 miles. I also had 9 miles of cycling, 20 miles of snowshoeing and 20 miles of skiing. This is not keeping in track with my yearly goals for either running or cycling, so I need to pick up the pace!

Reading: This month I only ended up reading three books, but all of them satisfied a category on the Read Harder Challenge.

The Taming of the Queen by Phillipa Gregory (4 stars)
Euphoria by Lily King (3 stars)
The Lake House by Kate Morton (4 stars)

Travel: In February, I went to Tahoe twice; the first time was with the family, where we went skiing and snowshoeing on the TRT and we watched the sun rise over the lake in the morning. The second time was with a group of running friends, where we trekked up a steep mountain the first day (to 10,000 ft) and over a frozen lake the next. Both trips were really cool and it was fun to get some winter cross training in at the same time!

Going down Round Top Mountain

In addition to all of the above, I also spent a lot of time digging in the yard. I am trying to get the backyard ready for spring and my to do list for that is quite long. I built a wall out of cinder block so that I can have a place to plant more stuff and now I need to set up the drip system and possibly build more raised beds. Each thing takes longer than expected, so of course, the going is slow.

The new wall. This corner is a work in progress! 

How was February for you!? Did it seem short to you? Have you started any spring projects yet? 

February was a strange month; to summarize: it was short, I did not run much, and it did not rain. We were lucky to have very nice weather compared to some of the other parts of the country; other than that, here are a couple of other things that happened.

Reading: Due to not running, I read 9 books this month. Most were only so-so, but there were a few that tickled my fancy, as well as one that I ended up not finishing, as I just wasn't in the mood for the genre. I don't really give books 5 stars, but there were a few that I gave 4 stars to:

Code Name Verity - Elizabeth Wein (this was my favorite of the bunch)
The Soldier's Wife - Margaret Leroy
Attachments - Rainbow Rowell
Wonder - R.J. Palacio

Running: This month was supposed to be the high month of my 100k training plan, which would be about 240 miles. However, first I sprained my ankle and then just as that was starting to heal, I got a really bad cold, which took me out for a couple of weeks. So it was not what I wanted it to be, and my race is not going to be what I wanted it to be, but I did manage to get some runs in, bringing my monthly total to about 140 miles.

Travel: Since I was sick, this month consisted of a lot of bed time. However, I did go to Sacramento for a race, and I took a little trip out of town for the long weekend for some hiking and snowshoeing.

Mt. Shuksan

Was your "short month" long or did it go by fast? Did you go anywhere for the holiday weekend?

For being the shortest month in the year, the month of February packed a huge punch! A lot happened in a mere four weeks.

Running: I actually ran one race, which I have yet to post a recap for, bringing my total February miles to 199. I know, I should have run ONE more mile in order to round it out, but I did not realize that February was even over until it was gone! It really flew by. I have been doing a lot of after work runs along the Marina and Crissy Field in San Francisco and the views have been gorgeous! I also had a great trail run on the coast with Broski, which was his longest EVER (22.5 miles)!

Alamere Falls run

Travel: I actually got out of the state this month, with a food and fun filled weekend with Lisa in North Carolina. In addition, I had a day trip to Sacramento, and another to Santa Rosa. It was nice to get out the the Bay Area if even just for the weekend, although it's always nice to come home! I am hoping to get out of the country soon, but the prices of flights have been really expensive lately!

Books: Wait for it...this month I read 5 books, and read 4 half books (one novel I just couldn't finish, 3 reference type books such as a book about the John Muir Trail). My favorites were Someone Knows My Name, which is about an African girl ripped from her home and taken to America to be a slave in the 1700s, and Orphan Train, a story about New York orphans who get taken to the Midwest to be "adopted" by farmers wanting free labor. Both are stories of hardship and are based on true stories and they were both hard to put down.

An attempt to brush up on my Spanish

Food: Aside from all the wonderful food in North Carolina, I also tried a new Korean place in Oakland as well as had a nice lunch at Brown Sugar Kitchen, which has the most excellent waffles (with chicken). In addition, I have been experimenting more with canning, and had a great Sunday night dinner with the Broski where we had homemade hamburgers and baked sweet and regular potato fries. I also had a great time (as always) shopping in my local Mexican supermarket, where the jalapenos are super cheap!

View of the city from Crissy Field

Other highlights included happy hour with the girls, some great lunch time walks, some garden prep work, an extra productive month at work and lots of time spent planning out summer weekends!

How was your February? Did you have any fun weekend trips? Do you have a favorite local market?