The image below, a forecast for October 8, 2017, run on October 7, shows Hurricane Nate near New Orleans, with winds as fast as 83 mph or 134 km/h (at 850 mb) and up to 5.33 in or 135.4 mm (3-hour precipitation accumulation) of rain (at the green circle).

Early forecast also showed as much as 6.1 in or 154.9 mm of rain (3-hour precipitation accumulation) hitting the Mississippi coast.

The NOAA image below also shows the track over North America as forecast over the next few days.

Nate, the fourth major storm to strike the United States in less than two months, killed at least 30 people in Central America before entering the warm waters of the Gulf and bearing down on the U.S. South (Reuters report).

One of the biggest dangers is storm surge flooding, as illustrated by above image and the tweet below.

7-11 ft storm surge on the MS Gulf Coast and open water coast in SE LA from #Nate. I’m 6ft 6 in. This pole is 11 ft. Some perspective. pic.twitter.com/kisGyATz13

— Ken Graham (@wx4keg) October 7, 2017

As the world keeps warming, hurricanes are increasingly causing damage, as also discussed in a recent post.

The situation is dire a calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA National Hurricane Center
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

• The Arctic is Changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-arctic-is-changing-the-jet-stream-why-this-is-important.html

• Extreme weather is upon us
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html

It's raining over the Arctic Ocean and the rain is devastating the sea ice. What are the conditions that led to this?

As has been known for a long time, energy is added to Earth due to emissions by people and this translates into a warmer troposphere with more water vapor, warmer oceans and stronger winds.

Warming is hitting the Arctic particularly hard, due to numerous feedbacks, as illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomalies image on the right.

On July 6, 2017, cyclonic winds lined up to create a 'perfect storm'. As a result, an Atmospheric River of moisture was driven through Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the images below.

On July 6, 2017, 1500 UTC, winds in Bering Strait were as high as 58 km/h (36 mph) at surface level (green circle on above image left), and as high as 82 km/h (51 mph) at 850 mb (green circle on above image right).

On July 6, 2017, surface temperatures of the air in Bering Strait were as high as 8.1°C (46.5°F) (green circle on image right).

Another indication of the strength of the wind driven through Bering Strait is wave height. On July 6, 2017, waves were as high as 3.35 m or 11 ft in the Bering Strait, at the location marked by the green circle on the image on the right.

The relatively warm and moist air driven through Bering Strait by strong winds is causing rain to fall over the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the video and images further below.

On July 7, 2017, high air temperatures were recorded over land and over the water.

The image below shows temperatures recorded at two locations over the Mackenzie River, one of 32.6°C or 90.8°F at the mouth of the Mackenzie River and another one of 34.7°C or 94.5°F further inland. Warm water from rivers can substantially warm up the sea surface and thus melt the sea ice.

Temperature of the surface of the water was 10°C or 50.1°F where the water was pushed into the Bering Strait, while temperatures as high as 46.9°C or 116.3°F were recorded over California.

The combined impact of high temperatures, strong winds, high waves and warm river water, rain water and melt water looks set to further devastate what sea ice is left in the Arctic Ocean.

Rain can be particularly devastating. The very force at which rain strikes can fracture the sea ice where it's weak, while pools of rainwater and meltwater will form at places where the sea ice is stronger. Where fractures appear in the sea ice, warm water can reach further parts of the ice and widen the cracks.

The video below shows rain over the Arctic Ocean. The video was created with cci-reorganizer.org forecasts from July 3, 2017, 18:00 UTC to July 17, 2017, 00:00 UTC.

Arctic sea ice is in a terrible shape. Sea ice volume is at a record low, as indicated by the Wipneus image below showing volume anomalies from 2002.

The image below, by Torstein Viddal, shows how low the 2017 year-to-date average sea ice volume is.

An additional danger is wildfires. Due to high temperatures, wildfires have broken out near the Mackenzie River, as illustrated by the satellite image below.

Wildfires come with a lot of emissions, including soot that darkens the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

We are finally getting the rain that we have needed for so long. It was kind of ironic for a while there; where the rest of the country were suffering with record low temperatures and snowfall, we were sitting over here, dry as a bone. I went to Tahoe in January and went HIKING. This never happens. We really needed snow and rain in a bad way.

Rainy day in the city

So, it never fails, as soon as you wash your car it rains, right? For me, it's not about washing my car, it's about having back to back long runs planned for your weekend run. Currently, I am in the midst of a really strange training schedule: week 8 of 18 for the Boston Marathon and week 4 of 16 for the Miwok 100k. I know, it probably wasn't the best planning to have to train for both of them at the same time, but that's the way it is, so I am rolling with it.

Which meant I was supposed to run 20 miles on Saturday and 18 on Sunday. My plan was a nice long run in the city after work on Saturday and then a trail run on the East Bay on Sunday morning. However, after work on Saturday it was raining. Hard. But these miles weren't going to run themselves. So I went on a loop around the city.

And it was great. I admit, I cut it short at about 17 miles, but I still felt good afterwards. In fact, the only thing keeping my from the last few miles was my own laziness. I had it in me, but I had returned to the start and didn't feel like doing an extra three mile loop. I wanted some dinner.

The next day I woke up to no rain and hurried out of bed to get going. However, as I was eating breakfast, the skies opened up. I procrastinated for a while, hoping that it would ease up, but finally it was time to go. It poured the entire time. My feet were raisins, my shorts were sticking to me like nobody's business and my hat brim was like a waterfall. I cut this one short too because I had a rubbed raw spot on my heel and I tried to band-aid it, but it was really giving me grief.

I have to admit, running in the rain is probably my least favorite weather to run in. If it's cold, you warm up after a couple of miles; if it's snowing, it's cold, but not wet. However, when it's raining, running more doesn't make you any drier. And as you run, things are sticking to you, rubbing and pruning up. The other one I really dislike is extreme heat. It may be a toss up.

However, running in the rain makes me feel like a rock star. There is nobody else out; there weren't even any cars on the road. Everyone's hunkered inside watching Breaking Bad and you are outside, braving the elements. The few people you see, usually other runners, give you a knowing look as they pass you on the sidewalk. It's that look that says, "yup, you are one of us and we are awesome".

On Saturday, a bike rider said as he rode by me on a hill, "we are obviously dressed for different types of actives". He was wearing boots, waterproof pants, gloves and a rain slicker. I was wearing a tank top and shorts. I laughed at him and puffed up the hill, feeling like superman.

So, overall, last week was a good one. California is avoiding a drought and I am starting off this week feeling like a rock star. You can't ask for much more than that.

How was your weekend? Are you getting any wet weather? What makes you feel like a rock star?