Huh. What do I know? Having been dismissive of the idea that votes for 16 year olds is on the agenda at the moment (see post below), I caught this story in the Guardian. Apparently Labour and the SNP may make common cause to at least secure the reduced voting age for the EU referendum. In this instance such a move, if successful, could be a boost for the Yes camp, although generalising about the capricious young is always a bad idea.
Young Voters make a difference
May 24, 2015
Unlabelled
There continues to be debate amongst politics students, political scientists and crowd-pleasing politicians at student conferences over the voting age. Should it be reduced to 16?
Unlikely though it is to happen, it becomes a prescient question in the light of two recent referendums. The 2014 Scottish referendum allowed 16 and 17 year olds to join the vote, and saw a huge proportion of that age group give momentum to the Yes vote, for full devolution. Then came yesterday's vote on gay marriage in Ireland. Passing by a 62% vote, few doubt that young Irish voters felt particularly mobilised to join the referendum, even travelling from hideouts abroad to do so. Now the youth vote alone did not give Ireland a constitutional amendment which introduced gay marriage equality. In Scotland, the reduction in the vote to 16 did not ultimately produce devolution either. But in both cases, a radical change to the status quo was given momentum, and the possibility of popular consent, by the presence of a motivated youth vote.
Votes for 16 may not be on the agenda, but an enfranchised and mobilised youth vote would change the political landscape in future landscapes, almost certainly away from the traditional party structures. Perhaps that's one reason for them to steer clear.
Unlikely though it is to happen, it becomes a prescient question in the light of two recent referendums. The 2014 Scottish referendum allowed 16 and 17 year olds to join the vote, and saw a huge proportion of that age group give momentum to the Yes vote, for full devolution. Then came yesterday's vote on gay marriage in Ireland. Passing by a 62% vote, few doubt that young Irish voters felt particularly mobilised to join the referendum, even travelling from hideouts abroad to do so. Now the youth vote alone did not give Ireland a constitutional amendment which introduced gay marriage equality. In Scotland, the reduction in the vote to 16 did not ultimately produce devolution either. But in both cases, a radical change to the status quo was given momentum, and the possibility of popular consent, by the presence of a motivated youth vote.
Votes for 16 may not be on the agenda, but an enfranchised and mobilised youth vote would change the political landscape in future landscapes, almost certainly away from the traditional party structures. Perhaps that's one reason for them to steer clear.
UKIP and the politics of Mao
May 20, 2015
UKIP
My A-level students are sitting their exam on twentieth century Chinese history this afternoon. It is an extraordinary topic, dominated by the figure of Mao Zedong. Mao may have started with great ambition and ideals for his country, but most remember him now as the power-crazed lunatic who led China into the Great Leap Forward (deaths 40 million, though many estimate higher) and the Cultural Revolution (deaths around 1 million, and a devastated Chinese educational and cultural landscape).
One of the incidents I hope my students will recall is Mao's reaction to some criticism levelled against him by an old and trusted colleague. When Peng Dehuai, then the defence minister and head of the army, dared to broach some criticisms of Mao's plans for what proved to be the disastrous Great Leap Forward, he was greeted by a storm of abuse. Mao took him to task in front of the Communist elite, gathered at a conference in Lushan, blasted him for his temerity in launching such obviously unjustified and personal attacks, and had him removed from all his party jobs and sent into internal exile. But then, Mao had become the Commmunist Party's only big cheese by this time and was tempted to see any criticism of him or his policies as a bid for power. Although he had stood down from the presidency, he decided the party needed him to stay on as leader. Paranoia would later drive him to creating the bizarre and costly Cultural Revolution. But at least he stayed in office as Communist leader until his death.
On a separate issue, I'm hoping my politics students are noting the shenanigans within UKIP. Nigel Farage has shown that a determined leader can really hold on to power, although it's a shame that two of his most senior allies, who broached some criticism last week, have now 'resigned' their posts. Farage reigns triumphant it seems.
Don't know why those two unrelated issues crept into my mind. Must be the exam season effect.
One of the incidents I hope my students will recall is Mao's reaction to some criticism levelled against him by an old and trusted colleague. When Peng Dehuai, then the defence minister and head of the army, dared to broach some criticisms of Mao's plans for what proved to be the disastrous Great Leap Forward, he was greeted by a storm of abuse. Mao took him to task in front of the Communist elite, gathered at a conference in Lushan, blasted him for his temerity in launching such obviously unjustified and personal attacks, and had him removed from all his party jobs and sent into internal exile. But then, Mao had become the Commmunist Party's only big cheese by this time and was tempted to see any criticism of him or his policies as a bid for power. Although he had stood down from the presidency, he decided the party needed him to stay on as leader. Paranoia would later drive him to creating the bizarre and costly Cultural Revolution. But at least he stayed in office as Communist leader until his death.
On a separate issue, I'm hoping my politics students are noting the shenanigans within UKIP. Nigel Farage has shown that a determined leader can really hold on to power, although it's a shame that two of his most senior allies, who broached some criticism last week, have now 'resigned' their posts. Farage reigns triumphant it seems.
Don't know why those two unrelated issues crept into my mind. Must be the exam season effect.
Skinner 1, SNP 0
May 18, 2015
Scottish independence
Perhaps Scottish Labour could requisition the services of Dennis Skinner, the "Beast of Bolsover". The parliamentary veteran and plain speaker has defeated them in their first attempt to remove him from the seat he's been occupying for 45 years or so. These SNP types, for all of their bread and chip suppers on the terrace and their take-over of Labour's favourite bar, are wimps after all.
Of course this is all rather arcane and of no significance to the average voter whatsoever. But the increasing issue of the 56 SNP MPs is this. What will all these MPs actually do, given that most of the issues affecting their constituents are dealt with now by the MSPs of the Scottish Parliament? What is the British taxpayer awarding them £67,000 for?
Time to move on with devolution and save at least £3,752,000 a year straight off.
Of course this is all rather arcane and of no significance to the average voter whatsoever. But the increasing issue of the 56 SNP MPs is this. What will all these MPs actually do, given that most of the issues affecting their constituents are dealt with now by the MSPs of the Scottish Parliament? What is the British taxpayer awarding them £67,000 for?
Time to move on with devolution and save at least £3,752,000 a year straight off.
Those who can, organise; those who can't, commentate
May 16, 2015
Media
Lynton Crosby is certainly entitled to a bit of triumphalism. Getting Boris to London City Hall is one thing, but getting David Cameron back to Downing Street with a majority against all the odds certainly ranks as one of the great Lazarus tricks of modern politics. So well done Mr. Crosby. If you weren't already in the super-league of international political consultants, I guess you must be not only in it but near the top of it now.
He's left us with a bit of a gift too. Not a big speaker to the press (no good campaign manager wants to be the story during a campaign, as Alastair Campbell should have realised) he has now given a departing interview to the Daily Telegraph. Amongst all the post-election ink flow, this one provides some of the more interesting and controversial analyses, coming as it does from the man who won.
As I read his interview, I warmed to the man, far more than I might have expected. It was two points in particular that produced that feeling of positivity towards an undoubted political rottweiler of the right. First, apropos of a more significant point, he quoted that well worn canard that "Those who can do, those who can't teach". I sighed internally for a brief instinctive moment as I read that one. No teacher in this country has gone through their lives without having that one quoted incessantly at them by hilarious friends heading off to their long lunches in the city, or gobby students who have just been told off for yet another tedious infraction. But my sigh quickly turned to a gasp of surprise. Crosby was quoting this to do it down. His wife, it turns out, was a teacher and "I don't really agree with that" he said. Well, well. Here was a human side I hadn't realised before. And a possible explanation for one of his earliest influences on the Conservatives' election campaign - the removal of toxic Michael Gove from the Department of Education to the hidden (until the fiasco of the attempt to unseat the Speaker) realms of Chief Whip.
But the second reason for warming to Mr. Crosby was his second, more significant point. He claims that it is not only pollsters who should be hanging their heads for failing to misread the nation. He has a very vigorous, and heartfelt it seems, pop at the world of the political commentariat. He adapts his teacher comment for the world of politics to read "Those who can do, those who can't commentate." It was a feeling I'd had myself. Not, I hastily add, the insight that the commentators had it all wrong. That was a Crosbian intuition based on extensive internal polling. My feeling was an increasing level of irritation at the apparently all knowingness of commentators who hadn't stepped out of the metropolitan bubble. I blogged about it here, getting particularly irate at the desire of the commentators to keep knocking the campaign for its dullness instead of perhaps trying to enagage a little more deeply with the actual issues. Andrew Marr was an annoying example of one who praised the wonderful brilliance of the commentariat but thought the actual campaign being waged by, you know, actual politicians on the ground, was just "tooth-grindingly awful".
Well, Crosby has launched his mighty artillery at them, and is firing a shot in defence of those who have bothered to participate. The street pounders, canvassers, representatives and their agents, all seeking to do something a bit more than carp from the sidelines.
We need good commentators. At their best they provide a much needed guide to the often treacherous paths of political discourse. Divorced from the need to please an electorate they can bring some objective perceptions that illuminate the world that should so fascinate all of us. But Crosby rightly condemns those who seem to see politics more as entertainment. Better paid than many of the ordinaries whose vote is the warp and weft of the active politicians' work and voice, they have become too comfortable in their carping sanctimony. I don't agree with his picking out of Tim Montgomerie necessarily, who has after all been engaged with the political world of both policy and voters rather more directly than many writers, but I do laud his broader principle.
We get the politics we deserve, but very often it is the media not the politicians themselves who too often frame our polity. Yes, they should start taking some responsibility for that.
He's left us with a bit of a gift too. Not a big speaker to the press (no good campaign manager wants to be the story during a campaign, as Alastair Campbell should have realised) he has now given a departing interview to the Daily Telegraph. Amongst all the post-election ink flow, this one provides some of the more interesting and controversial analyses, coming as it does from the man who won.
As I read his interview, I warmed to the man, far more than I might have expected. It was two points in particular that produced that feeling of positivity towards an undoubted political rottweiler of the right. First, apropos of a more significant point, he quoted that well worn canard that "Those who can do, those who can't teach". I sighed internally for a brief instinctive moment as I read that one. No teacher in this country has gone through their lives without having that one quoted incessantly at them by hilarious friends heading off to their long lunches in the city, or gobby students who have just been told off for yet another tedious infraction. But my sigh quickly turned to a gasp of surprise. Crosby was quoting this to do it down. His wife, it turns out, was a teacher and "I don't really agree with that" he said. Well, well. Here was a human side I hadn't realised before. And a possible explanation for one of his earliest influences on the Conservatives' election campaign - the removal of toxic Michael Gove from the Department of Education to the hidden (until the fiasco of the attempt to unseat the Speaker) realms of Chief Whip.
But the second reason for warming to Mr. Crosby was his second, more significant point. He claims that it is not only pollsters who should be hanging their heads for failing to misread the nation. He has a very vigorous, and heartfelt it seems, pop at the world of the political commentariat. He adapts his teacher comment for the world of politics to read "Those who can do, those who can't commentate." It was a feeling I'd had myself. Not, I hastily add, the insight that the commentators had it all wrong. That was a Crosbian intuition based on extensive internal polling. My feeling was an increasing level of irritation at the apparently all knowingness of commentators who hadn't stepped out of the metropolitan bubble. I blogged about it here, getting particularly irate at the desire of the commentators to keep knocking the campaign for its dullness instead of perhaps trying to enagage a little more deeply with the actual issues. Andrew Marr was an annoying example of one who praised the wonderful brilliance of the commentariat but thought the actual campaign being waged by, you know, actual politicians on the ground, was just "tooth-grindingly awful".
Well, Crosby has launched his mighty artillery at them, and is firing a shot in defence of those who have bothered to participate. The street pounders, canvassers, representatives and their agents, all seeking to do something a bit more than carp from the sidelines.
We need good commentators. At their best they provide a much needed guide to the often treacherous paths of political discourse. Divorced from the need to please an electorate they can bring some objective perceptions that illuminate the world that should so fascinate all of us. But Crosby rightly condemns those who seem to see politics more as entertainment. Better paid than many of the ordinaries whose vote is the warp and weft of the active politicians' work and voice, they have become too comfortable in their carping sanctimony. I don't agree with his picking out of Tim Montgomerie necessarily, who has after all been engaged with the political world of both policy and voters rather more directly than many writers, but I do laud his broader principle.
We get the politics we deserve, but very often it is the media not the politicians themselves who too often frame our polity. Yes, they should start taking some responsibility for that.
Chuka's withdrawal
May 15, 2015
Unlabelled
Chuka Umunna was never considered to lack ambition, and had long been talked of as a future leader. His unexpected withdrawal from the leadership race raises questions that reflect poorly on the current state of our political and media relations.
Mr. Umunna states that he thought he was ready for the pressure that being a leadership candidate would bring but had under-estimated the level of coverage and intrusion that it actually brought. This does not appear to be a candidate running away from a potential scandal. This seems to be a man who has looked over the parapet and decided he wants to have a life rather than run into the no man's land of leadership coverage. In this, he follows another Labour MP who looked like a good bet for a party seeking able and empathetic figures to lead it, Dan Jarvis. Mr. Jarvis decided not to enter the race because of the potential impact on his young family.
Chuka Umunna has done his soul-searching and reached a pretty rapid conclusion. But I wonder if his withdrawal shouldn't precipitate soul-searching on the part of those who report on such things. If overly intrusive and hurtful media coverage really does form part of the reason for his decision not to go any further, then we need to reflect on whether our hugely judgmental and often savage coverage of politicians needs better restraint.
Alan Johnson, another able and potentially effective quondam leadership candidate, once decided he wanted nothing to do with the top job. Chuka has followed suit. Are we really happy that we have created a media circus which actively turns able people away, and rewards only the monumentally egoistic and exhibitionist?
Mr. Umunna states that he thought he was ready for the pressure that being a leadership candidate would bring but had under-estimated the level of coverage and intrusion that it actually brought. This does not appear to be a candidate running away from a potential scandal. This seems to be a man who has looked over the parapet and decided he wants to have a life rather than run into the no man's land of leadership coverage. In this, he follows another Labour MP who looked like a good bet for a party seeking able and empathetic figures to lead it, Dan Jarvis. Mr. Jarvis decided not to enter the race because of the potential impact on his young family.
Chuka Umunna has done his soul-searching and reached a pretty rapid conclusion. But I wonder if his withdrawal shouldn't precipitate soul-searching on the part of those who report on such things. If overly intrusive and hurtful media coverage really does form part of the reason for his decision not to go any further, then we need to reflect on whether our hugely judgmental and often savage coverage of politicians needs better restraint.
Alan Johnson, another able and potentially effective quondam leadership candidate, once decided he wanted nothing to do with the top job. Chuka has followed suit. Are we really happy that we have created a media circus which actively turns able people away, and rewards only the monumentally egoistic and exhibitionist?
The hell keeps on coming for Labour
May 15, 2015
Labour Party
There was an outpouring of Blairite angst over the Miliband election campaign last week, but the hell isn't over yet for the "Hell, yeah" leader. Today's "Times" sees political columnist Philip Collins provide one of the most seering condemnations of the Miliband experiment that I've read. It makes Peter Mandelson sound like Bagpuss.
Collins' first targets are the "cavalry of denial" who are lining up to contest the Labour leadership, so Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham. Noting that Labour's electoral problem was as significant in England as in the much reported Scotland, he describes Yvette Cooper's recent article for the "Mirror" as "a platitudinous, intern-drafted press release for the Pontefract and Castleford Express", taking her to task for the blithe belief that the average voter really liked a lot of what Labour was saying. Er, no they didn't, notes Collins.
On to Andy Burnham, whom he beautifully stilletos for being "close to tears about how much he loves the NHS" during the election campaign, and goes on to lambast for his belief that millions of people need to have an "emotional connection" with the Labour Party. Responds Collins, "Normal people, in the normal world, have emotional attachments to their families not the Labour Party". On Burnham's leadership bid, the columnist says that "I don't mind that Mr Burnham is Len McCluskey's candidate but it really worries me that he might be George Osborne's". (There is, by the way, a fantastically vituperative several lines aimed at McCluskey's wretched impact on the Labour Party concluding "belt up and leave the politics to people who know what they're doing.")
But it is Ed Miliband for whom Philip Collins reserves his most scathing ire. Noting that Mr. Miliband shows little sign of acknowledging that his whole election strategy might have been wrong, based as it was on a misguided belief that the country had somehow moved, or could be persuaded to move, sharp left, Collins takes the former leader to task for his vain and misguided campiagn. Suggesting that the Miliband strategy was to speak only to the 2% of the rich and 8% of the poor, but not to the unsqueezed middle in between, he writes:
"The Labour party in 2015 became the victim of a ghastly atavistic dispute, the lab rat for Mr Miliband's experiment in proving that his father, who insisted there was no parliamentary road to socialism, was right all along."
It is a tour de force of an article, well worth the price of today's "Times" (it is behind a paywall online, but cough up for a copy; if we don't pay for our journalism we'll end up with only having uninformed free stuff and that's no future for comment or reportage). Andy Burnham is overdue for a bit of well placed lambasting. A ghastly, over-emotional head in the sand denier of even his own previous record as Health Secretary, he must indeed be the preferred choice of the Tory Party for next Labour leader. He's good for another few constituency defections in five years time if anybody is. But Miliband too, in his absolute conviction that he was the right leader for Labour, a conviction that took him to fratricide and then to five years of sheer bloody torture for his party as they tried to convince themselves that he would come good in the end, is overdue for a bit of effective dousing.
Collins suggests that there could be optimism for the Labour party if they bother to heed the lines of the re-awakened Blairites and go for a next generation leader like Umunna, Kendall or Hunt. He's almost certainly right. If the Tories are worried that the next five years will watch them slowly unravel and expose their fractious tensions to the electorate, they will be praying that Len McCluskey remains the most influential player in the choice of the next Labour leader.
Collins' first targets are the "cavalry of denial" who are lining up to contest the Labour leadership, so Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham. Noting that Labour's electoral problem was as significant in England as in the much reported Scotland, he describes Yvette Cooper's recent article for the "Mirror" as "a platitudinous, intern-drafted press release for the Pontefract and Castleford Express", taking her to task for the blithe belief that the average voter really liked a lot of what Labour was saying. Er, no they didn't, notes Collins.
On to Andy Burnham, whom he beautifully stilletos for being "close to tears about how much he loves the NHS" during the election campaign, and goes on to lambast for his belief that millions of people need to have an "emotional connection" with the Labour Party. Responds Collins, "Normal people, in the normal world, have emotional attachments to their families not the Labour Party". On Burnham's leadership bid, the columnist says that "I don't mind that Mr Burnham is Len McCluskey's candidate but it really worries me that he might be George Osborne's". (There is, by the way, a fantastically vituperative several lines aimed at McCluskey's wretched impact on the Labour Party concluding "belt up and leave the politics to people who know what they're doing.")
But it is Ed Miliband for whom Philip Collins reserves his most scathing ire. Noting that Mr. Miliband shows little sign of acknowledging that his whole election strategy might have been wrong, based as it was on a misguided belief that the country had somehow moved, or could be persuaded to move, sharp left, Collins takes the former leader to task for his vain and misguided campiagn. Suggesting that the Miliband strategy was to speak only to the 2% of the rich and 8% of the poor, but not to the unsqueezed middle in between, he writes:
"The Labour party in 2015 became the victim of a ghastly atavistic dispute, the lab rat for Mr Miliband's experiment in proving that his father, who insisted there was no parliamentary road to socialism, was right all along."
It is a tour de force of an article, well worth the price of today's "Times" (it is behind a paywall online, but cough up for a copy; if we don't pay for our journalism we'll end up with only having uninformed free stuff and that's no future for comment or reportage). Andy Burnham is overdue for a bit of well placed lambasting. A ghastly, over-emotional head in the sand denier of even his own previous record as Health Secretary, he must indeed be the preferred choice of the Tory Party for next Labour leader. He's good for another few constituency defections in five years time if anybody is. But Miliband too, in his absolute conviction that he was the right leader for Labour, a conviction that took him to fratricide and then to five years of sheer bloody torture for his party as they tried to convince themselves that he would come good in the end, is overdue for a bit of effective dousing.
Collins suggests that there could be optimism for the Labour party if they bother to heed the lines of the re-awakened Blairites and go for a next generation leader like Umunna, Kendall or Hunt. He's almost certainly right. If the Tories are worried that the next five years will watch them slowly unravel and expose their fractious tensions to the electorate, they will be praying that Len McCluskey remains the most influential player in the choice of the next Labour leader.
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