It won't be dull with President Donald Trump in the White House, with even the transition period providing plenty of comment. Here's a few reads to keep up to date.
At the UCL Mishcon Lecture last night, Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian gave the liberal tour-de-force warning of the appalling times to come under President Trump. More on that below, but one article he recommended is the Tony Schwartz one from the New Yorker. Schwartz ghost-wrote the Trump book "Art of the Deal", and in a fit of buyer's remorse, as Freedland put it, came clean about the real Donald Trump. The New Yorker piece is here.
Trump has tried to re-awaken the memory of the Republicans' favourite president of recent years, Ronald Reagan, but how good was Reagan really? An article in Salon suggests Reagan was the most ill-informed president to ever take office, and slept through much of his presidency - read it here. Some may indeed be wanting Trump to sleep throughout most of his presidency as well - but that would mean leaving the governing side of things to Mike Pence, Stephen Bannon and Reince Priebus, with Mike Flynn steering foreign affairs. Hardly a recipe for calm.
Salon gave Chris Christie one of their un-coveted "Bullshitter of the Day" awards and it makes entertaining reading here, as Christie tries to persuade everyone he'd rather play out his governor's term than accept the non-existent role coming from the Trump team.
Freedland also mentioned the phenomenon of "fake news", and the Washington Post carried a great expose of it in this piece, as they interviewed two prolific - and definitely not true-believing - manufacturers of news to the gullible right. Perhaps the most eye-opening thing you'll read this week.
Oh, and that Trump victory? Two million votes behind Clinton, as this Politico report reminds us. Forget the "Revolution in America"; what about "A broken democracy"?
Finally the Mishcon Lecture itself, as delivered by Jonathan Freedland and attended to in person by a few of SGS's finest and brightest, can actually be accessed in glorious video here. If you missed it, give it a watch. Well worth an hour of any Trump sceptic's time.
Arctic sea ice extent fell 0.16 million km² from November 16 to November 19, 2016, as illustrated by above ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop image. The image below, based on NSIDC data, shows the Arctic sea ice shrinking 49,000 km² in four days.
This is happening at a time when there is little or no sunlight reaching the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below.
This recent fall in extent is partly due to strong winds, as illustrated by the image on the right.
Mostly, though, the lack of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean is caused by very warm water that is now arriving in the Arctic Ocean.
During the northern summer, water off the coast of North America warms up and gets pushed by the Coriolis force toward the Arctic Ocean. It takes several months for the water to travel along the Gulf Stream through the North Atlantic.
It has taken until now for the Arctic Ocean to bear the brunt of this heat.
As the image below shows, record sea surface anomalies showed up near Svalbard on October 31, 2016, when this heat first arrived in the Arctic.
On October 31, 2016, the Arctic Ocean was as warm as 17°C or 62.7°F (green circle near Svalbard), or 13.9°C or 25°F warmer than 1981-2011. This indicates how much warmer the water is beneath the surface, as it arrives in the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean.
Moreover, Antarctic sea ice is also falling, reflecting the warming of oceans globally. For some time now, Antarctic sea ice extent has been at a record low for the time of the year. On November 19, 2016, the combined extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice was 22.423 million km², as the image below shows.
This constitutes a fall in global sea ice extent of 1.085 million km² (418,900 square miles) since November 12, 2016, when global sea ice extent was 23.508 million km².
Let's look at those figures again. On Saturday November 12, 2016, global sea ice extent was 23.508 million km². On Saturday November 19, 2016, global sea ice extent was 22.423 million km². That's a fall of more than one million km² in one week.
By comparison, that's more than the combined size of ten European nations (such as Switzerland, Austria, Hungary, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and Ireland).
Or, it's more than the combined size of seventeen States of the United States (such as Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Maine, South Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island).
How much additional energy does Earth retain, due to such an albedo change? If it was a total albedo flip, it would be some 0.68 W/m². A conservative estimate would be a 50% albedo flip, as the image below illustrates, so this would mean that Earth now retains some 0.34 W/m² extra energy.
Thick sea ice covered with snow can reflect as much as 90% of the incoming solar radiation. After the snow begins to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo (or reflectivity) of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15, while the ocean reflects only 6% of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest.
So, this one-week fall in sea ice extent means there now is an additional warming of some 0.34 W/m². By comparison, the warming impact relative to the year 1750 of all carbon dioxide emitted by people was 1.68 W/m² in the most recent IPCC assessment report (AR5).
There's more! As sea ice declines, there is not only albedo loss due to a fall in extent, but there is also albedo loss over the remaining sea ice, which turns darker as it melts.
The image below shows the fall in extent of Antarctic sea ice up to November 20, 2016. On November 20, 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent was 2.523 million km² less than its extent was at the same time of the year in 2015.
How much more energy is now retained by Earth than in 2015? Assuming a 50% albedo flip for this extent loss and a similar albedo loss that's taking place over the remaining ice, this means that Earth is now retaining an extra amount of energy (compared to 2015) that is equal to all the warming relative to pre-industrial due to carbon dioxide emitted by people.
Above image shows how the difference between 2016 and 2015 Antarctic sea ice extent grew between November 4 and November 23. On November 23, 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent was 2.615 million km² smaller than on November 23, 2015.
That means that a huge amount of sunlight is now absorbed by the ocean, rather than reflected back into space.
The animation on the right (added later) shows the decline of the sea ice around Antarctica over the period from November 16, 2016, to January 4, 2017. For comparison, the blue line shows the 1979-2000 average.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Cameos or guest roles in a film surprise the audiences and bring some sort of excitement. Though cameos were initially rare in Tollywood but in the recent times they have become common. The makers of respective films are bringing in recognized actors or actresses for the sake of publicity and we have seen many noted star actors gracing the silver screen for a few minutes in this regard. But, before becoming popular, quite a few actors did guest roles (probably we can call it as their initial stages of struggle) and we as audience hardly recognized them, even at a later point of time. Here is the list of unknown cameos of actors who became popular in their later years.
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Ravi Teja
Perhaps ‘Mass Maharaj’ Ravi Teja is the only actor in the current generation who had worked in almost every department of filmmaking before becoming a successful actor. He played a small role in actor Rajasekhar’s ‘Allari Priyudu’ and then as an eve teaser in Nagarjuna’s ‘Ninne Pelladutha.’ Ravi Teja waited for a really long time to make a mark as a hero. Over the last decade and half, Mass Maharaja was part of many super hit films.
With director Teja’s ‘Nuvvu Nenu’, Sunil shot to fame.He became the most sought after comedian in no time. Before ‘Nuvvu Nenu,’ Sunil appeared in small roles in Powerstar Pawan Kalyan’s debut film ‘Akkada Ammayi Ekkada Abbayi’ and then in director Teja’s ‘Family Circus.’ Now Sunil, who is a full-fledged hero and with successive hits, is doing great.
In hero Nithin’s ‘Sambaram’ young hero Nikhil Siddhartha made a cameo. Post ‘Happy Days’, Nikhil’s fortunes have changed in Tollywood. He has matured as an actor and has been consistently delivering hits at box office. Nikhil is on his way to become one of the biggest actors of Tollywood.
This energetic anchor appeared in a small role in Jr NTR’s ‘Naaga’. Though films were her top priority, small screen beter worked for Anasuya. Recently, with Nagarjuna’s ‘Soggade Chinni Nayana' and with ‘Kshanam’, she proved that she is a talented actor.
With ‘Guntur Talkies’ anchor Rashmi Gautam drew the attention of audience. Her glamour and bold scenes were widely discussed. But her first performance was in late hero Uday Kiran’s ‘Holi’ movie. She played the role of comedian Sunil’s girlfriend in the movie. Now Rashmi Gautam has acted in a handful of films.
Despit being director Puri Jagannadh’s brother, it wasn’t a cake walk for Sairam Shankar. He played the role of a friend to Ravi Teja in the movie ‘Idiot.’ He also gets beaten up by Kota Srinivasa Rao in the movie. With ‘143’ Sairam Shankar marked his debut and director Krishna Vamsi’s ‘Danger’ brought him to the limelight.
The ‘Nachavule’ actress Madhavi Latha made a stunning debut. When Telugu audience were looking for an authentic Telugu heroine, Madhavi Latha looked like a ray of hope. Her second film was also a success. In the year 2007, Madhavi Latha appeared in a short role in superstar Mahesh Babu’s ‘Athidhi.’
‘Pelli Choopulu’ made Vijay Deverakonda an overnight star. This small film was one of the biggest hits of 2016. Before this film, Vijay made numerous attempts and attended many auditions too. In sensible director Sekhar Kammula’s ‘Life Is Beautiful’ Vijay played a negative role.
It wasn’t a cake walk for Rao Ramesh into the industry, despite being the son of actor Rao Gopal Rao. He shot to fame with ‘Avakai Biryani’ and ‘Gamyam.’ But Rao Ramesh’s debut was way back in 2002 in Nandamuri Balakrishna’s ‘Seema Simham.’ He played the role of actress Simran’s brother in the movie but it was not a meaty role. Like his role, Rao Ramesh was ignored. But now he is the most in-demand character artist in Tollywood.
Hero Siddharth wanted to become a director initially. He joined as an assistant to director Mani Ratnam. In the movie, ‘Amrutha’ Siddharth flashed on the screen for couple of seconds and vanished. Later he became a popular star in Tamil and Telugu languages. He also starred in one of the appreciated Hindi flick.
This Burning Star made his debut with creative director Krishna Vamsi's 'Mahatma' movie which was hero Srikanth's 100th film. Sampoornesh was seen in a very short role that lasted for few seconds. Watch Sampoo from the 60th second in this video below
For the third year in a row, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry (including cement production) have barely grown, as the Global Carbon Project image below shows:
Nonetheless, CO₂ levels have continued to rise and, as illustrated by the trend on the image below, they may even be accelerating.
According to NOAA, annual mean global carbon dioxide grew from 2004-2014 by an average 2.02 ppm per year. For 2015 the growth rate was 2.98 ppm. As an indication for what the 2016 growth rate will be, global CO₂ levels grew by 3.57 ppm between September 2015 and September 2016, and by 3.71 ppm between October 2015 and October 2016. How could growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere possibly be accelerating, given that emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production have barely risen over the past few years?
Deforestation and other land-use changes, in particular wildfires
During the decade from 2006 to 2015, emissions from deforestation and other land-use change added another 1.0±0.5 GtC (3.3±1.8 GtCO₂) on average, on top of the above emissions from fossil fuel and cement. In 2015, according to the Global Carbon Project, deforestation and other changes in land use added another 1.3 GtC (or 4.8 billion tonnes of CO₂), on top of the 36.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted from fossil fuels and industry. This rise in emissions from deforestation and other changes in land use constitutes a significant increase (by 42%) over the average emissions of the previous decade, and this jump was largely caused by an increase in wildfires over the past few years.
In 2016, monthly mean global CO₂ levels didn't get below 400 ppm. It was the first time that this happened in over 800,000 years.
On their way up, global CO₂ levels fluctuate with the seasons, typically reaching an annual minimum in August. In August 2016, CO₂ levels reached a low of 400.44 ppm, i.e. well above 400 ppm. In September 2016, carbon dioxide levels had gone up again, to 400.72 ppm. Importantly, a trend is contained in the data indicating that growth is accelerating and pointing at a CO₂ level of 445 ppm by the year 2030.
Sensitivity
Meanwhile, research including a 2014 study by Franks et al. concludes that IPCC was too low in its estimates for the upcoming temperature rise locked in for current CO₂ levels. A study by Friedrich et al. updates IPCC estimates for sensitivity to CO₂ rise, concluding that temperatures could rise by as much as 7.36°C by 2100 as a result of rising CO₂ levels.
When also taking other elements than CO₂ more fully into account, the situation looks to be even worse than this, i.e. the global temperature rise could be more than 10°C (or 18°F) over the coming decade, as further described at the extinction page.
Land sink
1 Gigatonne (Gt) = 1 billion tonnes = 1 Petagram (Pg). 1 PgC = 3.664 Gt of CO₂. Oceans have absorbed some 40% of CO₂ emissions since the start of the industrial era. Recent annual CO₂ take up by oceans is about 26% (annual global average over 2006 - 2015).
Above image also shows an increase of the land sink over the years, which a recent study attributes to higher CO₂ levels in the atmosphere. While this increase of the land sink appears to have held back a stronger temperature rise for some time, there are indications that this land sink is now decreasing.
A recent study suggests that some 30 ± 30PgC could be lost from the top 10 cm surface soil for a 1°C, and some 55 ± 50 PgC for a 2°C rise of global average soil surface temperatures, which would increase CO₂ levels in the atmosphere by some 25 ppm. The study adds that, since high-latitude regions have the largest standing soil C stocks and the fastest expected rates of warming, the overwhelming majority of warming-induced soil C losses are likely to occur in Arctic and subarctic regions. See also the video below for more on this study.
In other words, land is now taking up less carbon and is contributing more and more to global warming:
Deforestation and Soil Degradation: Agricultural practices such as depleting groundwater and aquifers, plowing, mono-cultures and cutting and burning of trees to raise livestock can significantly reduce the carbon content of soils, along with soil moisture and nutrients levels.
Climate change and extreme weather events: The recent jump in global temperature appears to have severely damaged soils and vegetation. Soil carbon loss and enhanced decomposition of vegetation appear to have occurred both because of the temperature rise and the resulting extreme weather events such as heatwaves, drought, dust-storms and wildfires, and storms, hail, lightning, flooding and the associated erosion, turning parts of what was once a huge land sink into sources of CO₂ emissions. Even worse, such extreme weather events can also lead to emissions other than CO₂ emissions, such as of soot, nitrous oxide, methane and carbon monoxide, which can in turn cause a rise in the levels of ground-level ozone, thus further weakening vegetation and making plants even more vulnerable to pests and infestations.
Albedo: As a 2009 study warned, higher temperatures could also cause decreased canopy transpiration, due to less widely opened plant stomata and the resultant increase in stomatal resistance at higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. As a result, low cloud cover is decreasing over most of the land surface, reducing planetary albedo and causing more solar radiation to reach the surface, thus further raising temperatures beyond the level of viability for many species. At the same time, the above extreme weather events are causing more water vapor to rise high in the atmosphere, resulting in cirrus clouds that reflect only little sunlight back into space, while trapping more heat (i.e. surface radiation emitted as longwave energy into space). Furthermore, emissions such as dust and soot from wildfires and storms can settle on snow and ice, resulting in faster melting.
In conclusion, while CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry may have barely grown, levels of greenhouse gases are steadily increasing, if not accelerating. At the same time, extreme weather events are on the rise and there are further factors contributing to cause the land carbon sink to shrink in size. Furthermore, the IPCC appears to have underestimated sensitivity to CO₂ rise.
Rising Temperatures
Without action, temperatures can therefore be expected to rise further, rather than come down from their currently already very high levels, as illustrated by the image below.
The image below shows the temperature rise of the oceans. Temperatures are rising particularly rapidly on the Northern Hemisphere. Much of that heat is carried by the Coriolis force along the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic Ocean.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
This contributes to a huge rise in the temperature of the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the images below. The image directly below shows showing temperature rises up to 10.2°C in the Arctic for October 2016.
The DMI graph below shows daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.
Red line: 2016 up to November 15, 2016. - Green line: climate 1958-2002.
On November 19, 2016, on 00.00 UTC, the Arctic was as much as 7.54°C or 13.57°F warmer than it was in 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below.
The image below shows the average temperature on November 19, 2016. The Arctic was 7.3°C or 13.14°F warmer than it was in 1979-2000, illustrating the accelerating warming of the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Ocean in many places shows temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F.
Global sea ice
As another reflection of an increasingly warmer world, the combined extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice is currently at a record low. On November 12, 2016, combined global sea ice extent was only 23.508 million km².
On November 18, 2016, combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent was only 22.608 million km². That's a fall of 0.9 million km² in six days!
Two images, created by Wipneus with NSIDC data, are added below to further illustrate the situation.
Above image shows global sea ice extent over the years, while the image below shows global sea ice area over the years. For more on the difference between extent and area, see this NSIDC FAQ page.
Some of the consequences of the dramatic global sea ice decline are:
More Ocean Heat: Huge amounts of sunlight that were previously reflected back into space are now instead absorbed by oceans.
Faster Melt: Decline of the sea ice makes it easier for warm sea water to get underneath glaciers and speed up their flow into the water.
Stronger Storms: More open water results in stronger storms, causing rainfall and further decline of the snow and ice cover, as well as greater cloud cover at high altitudes, resulting in more warming.
More Methane: Further decline of the snow and ice cover on Greenland and Antarctica in turn threatens to cause increased releases of methane from Greenland and Antarctica, as described in earlier posts such as this one. Furthermore, continued warming of the Arctic Ocean threatens to cause huge eruptions of methane from its seafloor.
Methane
While carbon dioxide emissions get a lot of attention (and they definitely must be cut rapidly and dramatically), the rise of methane is possibly even more worrying. The image below shows historic growth rates of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N2O).
According to NOAA data, annual mean global methane grew from 2004-2013 by an average of 3.75 ppb per year. In 2014, the growth rate was 12.56 ppb. In 2015, the growth rate was 10.14 ppb. According to the WMO, methane's 2014–2015 absolute increase was 11 ppb. For more on methane, see the methane page.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.
NEW DELHI: The government on Wednesday warned that cash deposits above Rs 2.5 lakh threshold under the 50-day window could attract tax plus a 200 per cent penalty in case of income mismatch.
"We would be getting reports of all cash deposited during the period of November 10 to December 30, 2016, above a threshold of Rs 2.5 lakh in every account.
"The (tax) department would do matching of this with income returns filed by the depositors. And suitable action may follow," revenue secretary Hashmukh Adhia said tonight.(nov9,2016)
Any mismatch with income declared by the account holder will be treated as a case of tax evasion.
"This would be treated as a case of tax evasion and the tax amount plus a penalty of 200 per cent of the tax payable would be levied as per the Section 270(A) of the Income Tax Act," he said.
The government has allowed citizens to deposit in their bank accounts old currency of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations , which had been declared invalid in the nation's biggest crackdown on blackmoney, corruption and counterfeit notes, between November 10 and December 30.
Adhia said small businessmen, housewives, artisans and workers who had some cash lying as their savings at home should not be worried about any tax department scrutiny.
"Such group of people... need not worry about such small amount of deposits up to Rs 1.5 or 2 lakh since it would be below the taxable income. There will be no harassment by the Income Tax Department for such small deposits made," he said.
On people resorting to buying of jewelery, he said persons buying jewelery has to provide the PAN number.
"We are issuing instructions to the field authorities to check with all the jewellers to ensure this requirement is not compromised.
"Action will be taken against those jewellers who fail to take PAN numbers from such buyers. When the cash deposits of the jewellers would be scrutinised against the sales made, whether they have taken the PAN number of the buyer or not will also be checked," he added.
0445 There's no actual winner, but - in the old Nixon phrase - if present trends continue, Donald Trump will be president of the United states tomorrow. It's not the most elevating of thoughts, but it is democracy.
0358 Michigan has been Democratic for 20 years, and tonight The Donald, our Donald, looks to end the reign. Currently ahead by over 40,000 votes, this will be a big win for Trump if he pulls it off. Ever divided, the room is buzzing with debate reminiscent of that between rival sports fans. Thobiyas and Smitho are still supporting Clinton to her last breath (although morale is low), and us deplorables are loving every second. Trump still looks more certain to be the President with every update.
Alex and Ben M
0356 Election night carries on at SGS. Our very own Smitho is in the first stage of grief - denial. Currently staring sadly at the MSNBC news stream, when asked who he thought would win he claimed it was 'too close to call'. Well, the rest of us have managed to call a Trump victory, much to his dismay. As Smitho tries to distract himself with talk of tomorrow's morning routine, the rest of us prepare ourselves for the nights continuous entertainment. Sutton Grammar's Trump campaign has proudly claimed new members over the night*, and we are happy that others have seen the light.
Alex and Ben M
* I think "claiming new members" is something of an over-statement; there's been an acceptance of Trump's probbaly victory, and a belief that he will be so disastrous as to possibly ruin the Republican party beyond repair in four years' time. Parties find it more difficult to recover from a bad president than just a bad candidate! GM
0345 Trump looks set to win. If this election has proved anything, it's that politics is the art of the possible. Today, Americans have stood up for what matters to them the most: culture, national identity, and a burning desire to dismantle the political establishment. For too long the American people have been told that their opinion does not matter; that their patriotism is a bad thing; and that their opinions are bigotry. The vote for Trump was not an ideological one, nor a supportive one, it was a big 'f*** you'to the elitist political class. Trump's success has reverted America's changing status from a grand republic to an insular oligarchy. Trump's success is a victory for democracy.
Ben M. and Alex B.
0344 So Ben Muir wants to share this:
0335 Tonight was supposed to be the night when liberal, left-leaning America cast off the chains of aggressive right-wing rhetoric and twitter-based hate campaigning . It was supposed to be the night when US citizens recognised that political experience and hard graft outweighs bare-faced lies and hyperbolic promises. Tonight is in fact the night when anti-establishmentarianism and anarchism paved the way for US voters to vote for the lesser of the two evils, and in turn elect ‘the Donald.’ Goodbye cruel world.
Smitho
0331 "Politics is the art of the possible" - Mr. Bartlett quoting Machiavelli as a pretty sound insight into the apparent success of the Trump candidacy!
GM
0330 The North West is prevailing as a Democratic stronghold. In New York for example 40.8% of the votes cast have been counted and 70.8% are for Clinton. Virginia the close race has also turned out a Democratic victory with 94% of the votes cast showing a democratic majority of 48.1%.
Trump has almost certainly going to win the Republican Midwestern stronghold and of course the George Wallace states too.
The glimmer of hope remains in Colorado 54.4% of the votes show a Democratic majority of 49%. New Mexico show a similar trend but these are states Obama won and not exactly toss up states so can we really celebrate it?
It is becoming increasingly likely that a Trump presidency will occur. I predict a Bush 2000 victory in terms of the Electoral College votes.
Thobiyas
0325 As the clock ticks on, it looks more certain with every second that the next POTUS will be Donald Trump. Currently he is projected 140 votes against Clinton's 104, with predictions stating that roughly 280 votes will go to Mr Trump at the end of the night, 10 more than he needs for the win. If he manages this, Clinton has very little chance of disputing the victory. Minds here at SGS have already shifted to 2020, with some of our liberal colleagues even resigning the Presidency to Trump. The current topic of conversation is Mr Marshall's prediction of a Michelle Obama candidacy in 2020, and the prediction of a landslide victory. Well, you heard it here first. Whether we think that Clinton can still make a comeback or that Trump has already won, most of us are certain of a one term Presidency for either candidate.
Still ever hopeful - Alex and Ben M
0307 So the live blog running from eastern polls closing at 12 midnight (British time) to just after 3am are below. The next tranche begins here, but this time with the more conventional placing of the most recent updates at the top!
And as we start anew, Trump as president looks less like a fantasy and more like nightmarish reality - but a nightmare that only lasts 4 years and could draw the poison from the Republican destruction of US politics.
1158pm Of course as the clock strikes 12 Trump has gained access to his twitter, after repeated bans by his campaign team. What is he complaining about this time? Muslims, Mexicans, The poor? This time however, he has practically admitted defeat with his unsurprising allegation of voting fraud. It seems once again that if things aren't going Trump's way he shall complain again and again. Yacoub 1202 I wouldn't be so sanguine at the moment, given Trump's apparent strength in New Hampshire according to exit polls. Still time for a big upset, 2016 style! GM 1210 The Donald currently polling ahead in New Hampshire, suggesting Trump may yet pull ahead. First time the Republicans will win the state since 2000. Let’s go lads. Kentucky and Indiana are also looking promising, with Rand Paul winning his senatorial seat in Kentucky.
Alex and Ben M
Trump currently behind in Virginia, a vital state for a Trump victory. Hopefully he can pull it out of the bag, but this is worrying for his campaign. Updates to come.
Alex and Ben M
1216 Trump ahead 19 to 3 as of right now, a strong start for a hopeful campaign. Trump also polling ahead in Florida. If he manages to win it, he will create an upset and be set on an easy path to the white house.
Alex and Ben M
1218 Next polls to close are West Virginia, where Trump is currently polling ahead. The Donald is managing to hold on to many red states, and has already managed to flip the blue state of New Hampshire, where Democratic hopefully Bernie Sanders once maintained his stronghold. Trumps campaign must be over the moon right now. Updates about West Virginia and Florida shortly.
Alex and Ben M
1224 Getting a sense of liberal hubris as I read of Trump's strong polling in New Hampshire (an Obama win in 2012) and Virginia (crucial state, Obama's in 2012). Could we really be in for a Brexit plus plus upset, as Trump promised??
GM
1235 Georgia looking like a landslide victory for Trump, with The Guardian claiming nearly 75% of the vote has gone to Trump.
Alex and Ben M
1235 Toss up state North Carolina has extended its voting deadline, currently still too close to call.
-Alex and Ben M
1236 Ok, ok, we're getting a little too excited by very small percentage reports in some sates so far. Take Virginia - North Virginia suburbs, which could be large-scale Clinton wins, not yet in. Georgia and South Carolina not yet reporting could also equal good news for Clinton. But still very early, and projections are just that.
GM
1240 Tonight is the night of opportunity.; the night of opportunity for those on the right of the spectrum to disprove the ancient code of pollsters that a high turnout amongst minorities that means a high turnout amongst Clinton voters . Trump is happy. The UK is not. South London waits with baited breath for further information about the swing state up early, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida etc.
Trump is still in this. It is going to be a late one.
Smitho x
1258 Next blue states to close polls are Michigan, Connecticut and Barack Obama's Illinois. Hoping for a red upset along with New Hampshire. #VoteTrump #MakeAmericaGreatAgain
Alex and Ben M
Trump leading in South Carolina by 10% as of right now. If we manage to win Virginia the election may be over for Clinton.
Alex and Ben M
Nearly 80% of the vote is in for Florida, which is looking to be one of the most decisive states of this election year. Clinton is 1% ahead at the moment, but it is still too close to call. This will be an interesting result, and may make or break Trump's campaign.
Alex and Ben M
Neck and neck in Florida, with the Donald under 30 votes ahead of Hillary so far. Tense as ever.
Alex and Ben M
0130 Now as we speak the votes for the crucial swing state Florida are being counted. The attack ads have been far less vicious than say Nevada, perhaps the Koch brothers believe Rubio has Florida secured, but this state is no less partisan.
60.2% of the votes have been determined and Rubio has won 51.5% of them with Murphy trailing behind at 44.9%. The liberal fuelled excitement I felt at an increasingly likely Democratic senate majority is ebbing away. Florida does not have any bearing on other swing states but it is certainly a sad occurrence.
Let’s hope Nevada goes to the wonderful Mrs Cortez Masto, who could make history as the first Latina woman wo win a Senate seat, perhaps that would be the consolation we need in the face of Rubio’s return.
Thobiyas
0136 Over 90% of the vote has been counted in Florida and Trump is still ahead by 1%. We're on the edge of our seats.
Alex and Ben M
0200 At this stage Donald Trump's performance is stronger than most polls would have put it, and the projected share of the electoral college vote between him and Clinton gets ever narrower. True, there are a lot of races that are currently too close to call, but this is far from the easy win the Clintonites were expecting, if it proves to be a win at all. Furthermore, the Senate race is not giving Democrats much cause for comfort either; their chances of gaining a small majority - pretty well essential if they want to be able to actually do any governing with a Democratic president - also seem to be receding.
GM
0208 Florida is unfolding to be a see-saw state in the presidential elections. The leader has switched back and forth 3 times in the past 15 minutes. An absolute nail-biter, a potential heart breaker too.
Let us move on from Florida and look at how the Senate elections are unfolding. Only three states have processed more than 50% of the votes cast. In Indiana 52.6% of the state have voted 53.2 Republican and 41.2% Democratic. In Kentucky 85.6% of the state have voted 57.5% Republican and 42.5% Democrats. It is safe to say that so far nothing is out of the ordinary.
Thobiyas
0230 Both politics teachers at SGS have declared Trump as the likely President Elect looking at the results so far. The Donald must be over the moon with his performance in the polls so far, especially in Florida where it was expected that he would be butchered by the Hispanic vote.
-Alex and Ben M
0235 Trump has almost won Florida, it seems pretty certain. To quote our beloved Politics head “It is Trump’s night” quite frankly. We Liberals are sad. Adam and I are easing into a depressive slump. We are questioning our lives. So where can we find solace and hope?
Well Illinois seems to be a certain Trump DEFEAT. But that is not unexpected. Florida was! It is all too early to speculate but Democratic defeat in Florida is truly upsetting and a huge blow.
Will right wing Populism prevail? I wonder how Marine Le Pen is feeling right now?
Thobiyas
0250 I think I want Trump to win. Clinton's victory - especially with a Republican senate - solves nothing and continues the gridlock. Trump's victory draws the poison and allows the Democrats to regroup for a clean sweep in 2020, especially after what will be the undoubted disasters of a Trump presidency. Bring on the Trump apocalypse!
0256 The Trump Train has stopped at SGS and picked up both of our Political gurus, as well as these two hopefuls. While many of our reasons for backing The Donald differ, we are currently predicting a Trump victory, and we are happy about it.
Alex and Ben M
0305 I think Mr Marshall is right. Perhaps we liberals should be view a Trump victory as the right path to what The Economist magazine say is crucial in American politics: Republican reform. It may come at an unfortunate consequence that manifests itself in the Supreme Court. The highly commendable and inspiring Ruth Bader Ginsburg wishes to retire but will hold on if there is a Republican president and Justice Kennedy holds the all-important swing vote. Now both, to put this bluntly, may die in a Trump’s presidency and this would give Trump a chance to appoint three Supreme Court Justices (the replacement of Scalia of course). This would be devastating to liberals nationwide considering the list of potential nominees Trump and Co. have released. The potential bright side seems soured.
We're there. Finally. One of the most controversial and divisive presidential elections in American history is drawing to a close, and tomorrow could be the apocalypse, or just business as usual.
Admittedly, everything looks good for Hillary, but predictions in this year of all years are fragile things, to be blasted away by iconoclastic forces. Who's to say whether or not the utterly devoted Trump supporters don't turn out in such numbers as to give him Florida and the rust belt states? Maybe Hillary is a far greater turn off than her supporters and admirers would concede. We could know how far into the lunatic fringe America is heading, or how much she intends to stay in the realm of normality, in about seven hours.
I have made no secret in the last few blog posts of how much I think Trump is a monstrous, appalling abomination of a candidate, or how I think Hillary's poor standing significantly under-sells her formidable strengths as a potential president. But all of that is naught, especially for this non-American with no vote. And yet, before the votes start rolling in, there is one final thing to note.
There has been much comment throughout this campaign, notably its latter stages, of how it is a terrible advert for democracy and a turn-off for younger voters. We should quash this nonsense. It is what all democratic procedures are. Messy, reflective of the humans who involve themselves in it, frustrating and sometimes outrageous. But it is still the way in which humans with free spirits and independent minds can demand changes in the personnel who rule them and challenge the institutions of government and legislature. It is still the best way of regularly moving power from one leader to the next. Messy, loud and aggressive as it is, it shines as a beacon when compared with the amoral, brutal authoritarianism of a Vladimir Putin in Russia, or the murderous actions of a President Assad in Syria, or the carefully pre-determined "elections" in the theocracy of Iran. In too many nations the transfer of power is at the behest of those with the greatest force. In too many nations the time when leadership changes hands is simply a time to keep your head down and hope you can avoid the fallout.
Democracy isn't meant to be smooth, but it is meant to be liberating, and like it or not this year's election in the US has been no different in that regard from its predecessors. Long may it continue.
We are going to try and live-blog the election. The estimable members of the SGS U6th politics set are gathering together to watch the election through the night, and if their wits are up to it they will be sharing some views on this blog. That's the idea at any rate. Feel free to check back in every so often to see if its working!
If You've ever accidentally tried on a shirt intended for the opposite gender, you no doubt figured it out as soon as you tried to button the buttons. Why do clothiers put the buttons for men and women on the opposite side of the shirt?
Why Do Men’s and Women’s Shirts Button on Different Sides?
If you’ve ever had to fold the laundry of men and women (or if you’ve ever accidentally put on a piece of women’s clothing in the dressing room without realizing it), you’ve invariably noticed that while men’s shirts have their buttons on the right side, women’s shirts have their buttons on the left side. Why is this?
Though there’s no historical record or museum with an exhibit devoted to buttons (and/or factual logic as to why a person’s sex would have anything to do with said buttons’ orientation), most sources seem to cite the same simple rationale that dates back over a century.
Mens’ buttons are on the right side because men have always tended to dress themselves and most men (and women, for that matter) are right-handed.
Womens’ buttons are on the left side because years ago (say, during the Victorian Era), the women that could afford fancy clothing with a bunch of buttons would rely on maids to help dress them. So, if a servant (most of whom, naturally, would be right-handed) is going to routinely buttoning up a shirt/dress for someone else, that servant is going to prefer to have the buttons on their right side (which would be the left side of the garment.
The Observer used to be a fine campaigning newspaper, although it has become a little subsumed within its Guardian embrace in recent years. Nevertheless, its editorial today provides the best, most vigorous response yet not only to the anti-High Court hysteria of last week, but also of the wider threat posed by a constitutionally blind right-wing movement across Europe.
In its dissection of the British constitution and its evolution, the editorial provides AS politics students with a masterly and concise overview.
In its attack on "the lie factories of Fleet Street", it offers a well executed broadside against the lethal exercise of power without responsibility that the mainstream press still has.
In its defence of the role of parliamentary sovereignty, it offers an articulate case for the virtues of that particular system.
In its linkage to the wider world of right-wing political extremism, from Donald Trump to the authoritarian clampdown of Turkey's President Erdogan, it offers a timely warning against the siren voices of the anti-liberals in our own country.
Finally, whether you agree with it or not, it offers a cogent critique of Theresa May's premiership so far - a premiership not yet affirmed by any general election result.
Today's Observer editorial is both a great campaigning piece and a well-articulated argument about our body politic that can be recommended to any reader, and certainly to the AS student in search of further, well-informed, debate.
It was a commonplace amongst Brexit campaigners that they wanted a return to the sovereignty of the British parliament. They wanted British laws judged by British courts. What they didn’t tell us was that they only wanted that if it agreed with them.
An independent judiciary and the separation of courts and political partisanship have long been held to be the foundation stones of healthy democratic societies. So long as courts remain above the fray then political acts can be called to account and subjected to an impartial judgement. Politicians can too, if the need arises. We have a strong legal system because it protects us. We have it because we, the people, deserve that protection against the unbounded ambitions of our political leaders.
Parliament offers up a different level of protection, but one that is no less crucial to the well-being a state’s citizens. With proper parliamentary scrutiny, a government – the executive – cannot get away with arbitrary rule or unchecked authority, the key components of dictatorships throughout history. It is always a dangerous sign when the leaders of an executive in a democratic society start to rail against the very institutions designed to stop their descent into arbitrary and dictatorial rule.
It was the desire to ensure that such institutions of checking distant authority were local and robust that infused so much of the Brexit leaders’ campaigning. One of their primary complaints against the European Union was the lack of accountability of its too distant institutions.
The unbounded Brexit hysteria about the High Court’s ruling on Article 50 has revealed them to be little more than the populist demagogues we always suspected, rather than the guardians of a uniquely British system of calling power to account. It is a bizarre reversal. Their Brexit view takes on a different perspective. Perhaps their railing against the EU was not about constitutional principle all along, but simply about the fact that they detested its political views.
And then there is the marvellous, if wholly misleading, invocation of the “people’s will” in the Brexit criticism of the High Court. The “people” do not act as one, and never have. In the Brexit referendum the “people” were pretty broadly split. Just under 17.5 million people did indeed vote to leave, but just over 16 million voted to stay. That is a difference of less than 4%. By no reckoning was the vote a sweeping indication of the will of all of the British people. Nigel Farage, the defining figure of the campaign, certainly never used to consider such a small majority to be decisive. He claimed – before the referendum – that if only a 4% majority voted to stay in the EU, then the referendum would have to be re-run. So the “people” cannot be invoked on the Brexiters’ side without substantial qualification.
Theresa May’s initial virtue as a new Prime Minister – one who has not of course received any mandate as leader from the British electorate – was that she understood the need to act upon the result of a referendum in which she had played only a very lukewarm role. She was right in that. But where she has begun to sully her reputation is in her failure to recognise that the democratic authority of the referendum was severely limited. Limited by its tiny majority, and limited by the fact that it provided only a simple decision – to leave the EU – but left unanswered any questions about how, or even why. Certainly the referendum provided no guidance on the mechanism of leaving. This is where parliament correctly reasserts itself.
The UK is still a parliamentary democracy. The occasional use of referendums doesn’t alter that. At best, the referendums provide a direction of travel. They do not suddenly cede a mythical popular authority to a government to do whatever it will, without recourse to parliament. The dictators of the twentieth century favoured plebiscites as a form of underpinning for their own regimes. Theresa May and her government are nowhere near that line, but they are favouring a similar methodology for their own purposes.
The response of the Brexit press to the High Court ruling has been rabble-rousing, inaccurate and unappealing. It has placed the ruling as an attempt to stop Brexit rather than an attempt to restore the sort of parliamentary sovereignty that Brexiters once advocated. It is one thing for a fickle, commercial and foreign-owned press to be irresponsible and wilfully ignorant. It is quite another when the government in power seems to go along with it. The Justice Secretary has revealed herself to be nothing more than a craven political hack, unworthy of the ancient duty and authority of the Lord Chancellor position which is still part of her title. Mrs. May should be careful not to replicate the tawdry image that her Justice Secretary has acquired. After all, she has no strong mandate herself.
